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From: Eric Lombrozo <elombrozo@gmail.com>
In-Reply-To: <5A323AB6-914C-4FF5-9FC2-AB8E02C69F93@phauna.org>
Date: Tue, 4 Aug 2015 20:07:48 -0700
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To: Owen <ogunden@phauna.org>
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Cc: Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance"
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Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we use =
theory, empirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?

> On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev =
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>=20
> Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no =
surprise that the results are implausible.
>=20
> On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev =
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
> On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev =
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org =
<mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>> wrote:
> And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to =
wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:
>    https://blocksizedebate.com/ <https://blocksizedebate.com/>
>=20
> =E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early =
July?) so those numbers aren't live. But...
>=20
> Network hash rate
>  3,255.17 PH/s  (same block size)
>  5,032.64 PH/s  (block size increase)
>=20
>  4,969.68 PH/s  (no replace-by-fee)
>  3,132.09 PH/s  (replace-by-fee)
>=20
> Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings =
of the current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 =
months for the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due =
in that period too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime =
in the past year, when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days =
to once a year; it just doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
>=20
> That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but =
given that site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but =
$555 with bigger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to =
price. Also, 12.5btc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if =
that price increase is realistic, it would compensate for almost all of =
the block reward reduction.
>=20
> Daily transaction volume
>  168,438.22 tx/day  (same block size)
>  193,773.08 tx/day  (block size increase)
>=20
>  192,603.80 tx/day  (no replace-by-fee)
>  168,406.73 tx/day  (replace-by-fee)
>=20
> That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size =
increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a =
30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If =
that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably =
be enough for the next two years...
>=20
> (Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to =
increasing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as =
centralisation risks go; but given I'm not that convinced by the other =
predictions, I'm not sure I want to give that much weight to that one =
either)
>=20
> Cheers,
> aj
>=20
> --
> Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au <mailto:aj@erisian.com.au>>
>=20
>=20
> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev =
<https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>
> _______________________________________________
> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev


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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html =
charset=3Dutf-8"></head><body style=3D"word-wrap: break-word; =
-webkit-nbsp-mode: space; -webkit-line-break: after-white-space;" =
class=3D"">Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we =
use theory, empirical data, and engineering to fix the damn =
problems?<div class=3D""><br class=3D""><div><blockquote type=3D"cite" =
class=3D""><div class=3D"">On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via =
bitcoin-dev &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" =
class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>&gt; wrote:</div><br =
class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=3D""><div class=3D"">Given =
there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surprise =
that the results are implausible.<br class=3D""><br class=3D""><div =
class=3D"gmail_quote">On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns =
via bitcoin-dev &lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" =
class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>&gt; =
wrote:<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt =
0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_default" =
style=3D"font-family:monospace"><span =
style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D"">On 4 August 2015 at =
01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev </span><span dir=3D"ltr" =
style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D"">&lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank" =
class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>&gt;</span><span =
style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D""> wrote:</span><br =
class=3D""></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><div =
class=3D"gmail_quote"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 =
0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr" =
class=3D""><div class=3D"">And the preliminary results of using a =
prediction market to try to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks =
roughly correct to me, too:</div><div class=3D"">&nbsp; &nbsp;<a =
href=3D"https://blocksizedebate.com/" target=3D"_blank" =
class=3D"">https://blocksizedebate.com/</a></div></div></blockquote><div =
class=3D""><br class=3D""></div><div class=3D""><div =
class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:monospace">=E2=80=8BThe =
scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) so those =
numbers aren't live. But...</div><div class=3D"gmail_default" =
style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br class=3D""></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" =
class=3D"">Network hash rate</span><br class=3D""></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" =
style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">3,255.17 PH/s &nbsp;(same =
block size)</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span =
class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> =
</span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">5,032.64 PH/s =
&nbsp;(block size increase)</span><br class=3D""></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D""></font></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" =
style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">4,969.68 PH/s &nbsp;(no =
replace-by-fee)</span><br class=3D""></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span =
class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>3,132.09 PH/s =
&nbsp;(replace-by-fee)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D""></font></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Those =
numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the =
current hashrate (&lt; 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months =
for the last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that =
period too. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the =
past year, when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once =
a year; it just doesn't seem a supportable prediction =
now)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D""><br class=3D""></font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger =
blocks is surprising, but given that site also predicts USD/BTC will be =
$280 with no change but $555 with bigger blocks, so I assume that =
difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5btc at $555 each is about =
23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is realistic, it would =
compensate for almost all of the block reward =
reduction.</font></div><div class=3D""><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D""><br class=3D""></font></div></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Daily =
transaction volume</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" =
style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>168,438.22 tx/day &nbsp;(same block =
size)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> =
</span>193,773.08 tx/day &nbsp;(block size increase)</font></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D"gmail_default"><br =
class=3D""></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span =
class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> =
</span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">192,603.80 =
tx/day &nbsp;(no replace-by-fee)</span></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" =
style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">168,406.73 tx/day =
&nbsp;(replace-by-fee)</span><br class=3D""></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" =
class=3D""><br class=3D""></span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default">That's=
 only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size =
increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a =
30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If =
that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably =
be enough for the next two years...</div><div class=3D""><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br =
class=3D""></span></div><div class=3D""><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">(Predicting that the node =
count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing block sizes seems =
quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go; but given I'm not =
that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure I want to give =
that much weight to that one either)</span></div><div class=3D""><span =
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br =
class=3D""></span></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font =
face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Cheers,</font></div></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D"">aj</font></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D""></div></div>-- =
<br class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_signature">Anthony Towns &lt;<a =
href=3D"mailto:aj@erisian.com.au" target=3D"_blank" =
class=3D"">aj@erisian.com.au</a>&gt;</div>
</div></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 2.5em; margin-bottom: 1em; =
border-bottom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; =
border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class=3D""><br =
class=3D"webkit-block-placeholder"></div><pre class=3D"k9mail"><hr =
class=3D""><br class=3D"">bitcoin-dev mailing list<br class=3D""><a =
href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" =
class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br class=3D""><a =
href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev" =
class=3D"">https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev<=
/a><br =
class=3D""></pre></blockquote></div></div>________________________________=
_______________<br class=3D"">bitcoin-dev mailing list<br class=3D""><a =
href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" =
class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br =
class=3D"">https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev<=
br class=3D""></div></blockquote></div><br class=3D""></div></body></html>=

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