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Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2015 00:16:46 +0100
From: Ross Nicoll <jrn@jrn.me.uk>
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Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Concerns Regarding Threats by a Developer
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I'm struggling to illustrate how incredibly low 7 transactions per 
second is, not just for a payment network, but even just for a clearance 
network (i.e. to balance transactions between institutions and/or 
chains). As an example, the Clearing House Interbank Payments System 
(CHIPS) is a US-only, inter-bank only clearance network, which handled 
about 3.5 transactions per second (average) in 2014 
(https://www.theclearinghouse.org/~/media/tch/pay%20co/chips/reports%20and%20guides/chips%20volume%20through%20may%202015.pdf?la=en).

While it seems likely the US population of 300 million makes more 
transactions individually than many other countries, and therefore we 
can't simply multiply that by 20 to estimate what a global clearance 
network might require, hopefully it's clear that if Bitcoin is to scale 
globally, it needs substantially more transaction throughput even if 
main chain transactions become something for banks and the super rich. I 
don't know how much more, but I can't look at the 8MB reportedly backed 
by a number of mining pools and say it's clearly insufficient, at least.

I should emphasise that I don't think we need to jump straight to 8MB 
(or otherwise), if a scaling protocol can be decided upon that would be 
ideal, but we should be planning ahead while it's still relatively easy 
to make these changes.

Ross

On 18/06/2015 23:33, Mark Friedenbach wrote:
> On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 2:58 PM, Jeff Garzik <jgarzik@bitpay.com 
> <mailto:jgarzik@bitpay.com>> wrote:
>
>
>     The whole point is getting out in front of the need, to prevent
>     significant negative impact to users when blocks are consistently
>     full.
>
>     To do that, you need to (a) plan forward, in order to (b) set a
>     hard fork date in the future.
>
>
> Or alternatively, fix the reasons why users would have negative 
> experiences with full blocks, chiefly:
>
>   * Get safe forms of replace-by-fee and child-pays-for-parent 
> finished and in 0.12.
>   * Develop cross-platform libraries for managing micropayment 
> channels, and get wallet authors to adopt
>   * Use fidelity bonds, solvency proofs, and other tricks to minimize 
> the risk of already deployed off-chain solutions as an interim measure 
> until:
>   * Deploy soft-fork changes for truly scalable solutions like 
> Lightning Network.
>
> Not raising the block size limit does not mean doing nothing to solve 
> the problem.
>
>
>
> ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Bitcoin-development mailing list
> Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net
> https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development


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<html>
  <head>
    <meta content=3D"text/html; charset=3Dwindows-1252"
      http-equiv=3D"Content-Type">
  </head>
  <body bgcolor=3D"#FFFFFF" text=3D"#000000">
    I'm struggling to illustrate how incredibly low 7 transactions per
    second is, not just for a payment network, but even just for a
    clearance network (i.e. to balance transactions between institutions
    and/or chains). As an example, the Clearing House Interbank Payments
    System (CHIPS) is a US-only, inter-bank only clearance network,
    which handled about 3.5 transactions per second (average) in 2014
(<a class=3D"moz-txt-link-freetext" href=3D"https://www.theclearinghouse.=
org/~/media/tch/pay%20co/chips/reports%20and%20guides/chips%20volume%20th=
rough%20may%202015.pdf?la=3Den">https://www.theclearinghouse.org/~/media/=
tch/pay%20co/chips/reports%20and%20guides/chips%20volume%20through%20may%=
202015.pdf?la=3Den</a>).<br>
    <br>
    While it seems likely the US population of 300 million makes more
    transactions individually than many other countries, and therefore
    we can't simply multiply that by 20 to estimate what a global
    clearance network might require, hopefully it's clear that if
    Bitcoin is to scale globally, it needs substantially more
    transaction throughput even if main chain transactions become
    something for banks and the super rich. I don't know how much more,
    but I can't look at the 8MB reportedly backed by a number of mining
    pools and say it's clearly insufficient, at least.<br>
    <br>
    I should emphasise that I don't think we need to jump straight to
    8MB (or otherwise), if a scaling protocol can be decided upon that
    would be ideal, but we should be planning ahead while it's still
    relatively easy to make these changes.<br>
    <br>
    Ross<br>
    <br>
    <div class=3D"moz-cite-prefix">On 18/06/2015 23:33, Mark Friedenbach
      wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote
cite=3D"mid:CAOG=3Dw-tf7qz9XSkDg5POKtFLkHWDA=3D=3Djf2iVxVL8wz1hqcAVOg@mai=
l.gmail.com"
      type=3D"cite">
      <div dir=3D"ltr">On Thu, Jun 18, 2015 at 2:58 PM, Jeff Garzik <span
          dir=3D"ltr">&lt;<a moz-do-not-send=3D"true"
            href=3D"mailto:jgarzik@bitpay.com" target=3D"_blank">jgarzik@=
bitpay.com</a>&gt;</span>
        wrote:<br>
        <div class=3D"gmail_extra">
          <div class=3D"gmail_quote">
            <blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0
              .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><br>
              <div dir=3D"ltr">The whole point is getting out in front of
                the need, to prevent significant negative impact to
                users when blocks are consistently full.
                <div><br>
                </div>
                <div>To do that, you need to (a) plan forward, in order
                  to (b) set a hard fork date in the future.</div>
              </div>
            </blockquote>
            <div><br>
            </div>
            <div>Or alternatively, fix the reasons why users would have
              negative experiences with full blocks, chiefly:<br>
              <br>
            </div>
            <div>=A0 * Get safe forms of replace-by-fee and
              child-pays-for-parent finished and in 0.12.<br>
            </div>
            <div>=A0 * Develop cross-platform libraries for managing
              micropayment channels, and get wallet authors to adopt <br>
            </div>
            <div>=A0 * Use fidelity bonds, solvency proofs, and other
              tricks to minimize the risk of already deployed off-chain
              solutions as an interim measure until:<br>
            </div>
            <div>=A0 * Deploy soft-fork changes for truly scalable
              solutions like Lightning Network.<br>
              <br>
            </div>
            <div>Not raising the block size limit does not mean doing
              nothing to solve the problem.<br>
            </div>
          </div>
          <br>
        </div>
      </div>
      <br>
      <fieldset class=3D"mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
      <br>
      <pre wrap=3D"">----------------------------------------------------=
--------------------------
</pre>
      <br>
      <fieldset class=3D"mimeAttachmentHeader"></fieldset>
      <br>
      <pre wrap=3D"">_______________________________________________
Bitcoin-development mailing list
<a class=3D"moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href=3D"mailto:Bitcoin-development@=
lists.sourceforge.net">Bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net</a>
<a class=3D"moz-txt-link-freetext" href=3D"https://lists.sourceforge.net/=
lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development">https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/l=
istinfo/bitcoin-development</a>
</pre>
    </blockquote>
    <br>
  </body>
</html>

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