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Subject: [bitcoin-dev] Analysis paralysis and the blocksize debate
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--001a11c25ba25ad23e051ca713db
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

I am a long time Bitcoin user, miner, investor, full node operator, and
distributed real-time system software engineer.

Out of the all currently proposed blocksize increase solutions, I support
BIP101 (or something like it) and find the current blocksize debate very
frustrating, so I will try to systematically debunk some common arguments
against BIP101 below.

   1.

   We should not increase the blocksize because we'll just end up hitting
   the limit again at a future time.


   -

      If a reasonable blocksize increase like BIP101 that scales with
      technology is implemented, it's not a given that we will hit the
blocksize
      limit (consistently full blocks over an extended period of time) agai=
n in
      the future. Stating that we will definitely hit the blocksize limit a=
gain
      in the future is pure speculation about future bitcoin transaction vo=
lume
      that can't possibly be known at this time, and is nothing but conject=
ure.
      If technology increases faster than bitcoin transaction volume, simpl=
y
      scaling the Bitcoin blocksize could keep up with future demand.
If Bitcoin
      is successful beyond our wildest dreams and future transaction volume
      outstrips future blockchain space, alternative solutions like
sidechains or
      the lightning network will have more time to be implemented.


   1.

   The full node count will go down if we increase the blocksize because it
   will be more costly to run a full node.


   -

      I'm not sure this is true. I currently run a full node on a higher
      end consumer PC with a higher end home network connection, but if the
      blocksize limit is not raised and transaction fees increase such
that it is
      no longer economical for me to access the bitcoin blockchain directly=
, I
      will no longer run a full node to support the network. Bitcoin
is no longer
      interesting to me if it gets to the point where the average user
is priced
      off the blockchain. Users that have direct access to the blockchain a=
re
      more likely to run full nodes. If Bitcoin ever becomes purely a limit=
ed,
      small settlement network, I will no longer support it and move onto
      something else.


   1.

   The blocksize can only be increased if there is developer =E2=80=9Cconse=
nsus=E2=80=9D
   and the change is not =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=9D.


   -

      Any blocksize increase will the deemed =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=
=9D and lack
      =E2=80=9Cconsensus=E2=80=9D, but doing nothing in the face of consist=
ently full
blocks and
      rising transaction fees is also =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=9D and w=
ill lack
=E2=80=9Cconsensus=E2=80=9D.
      Inaction, maintaining the status quo, and blocking a blocksize
increase in
      the face of consistently full blocks and rising transaction fees
is just as
      controversial as increasing the blocksize.


   1.

   Don't increase the blocksize now with all the promising work going on
   with sidechains and the lightning network.


   -

      KISS (keep it simple, stupid). When dealing with a highly complex,
      mission critical system, there needs to be a very compelling reason t=
o
      choose a much more complex solution over a simple solution like BIP10=
1.
      Sidechains and the lightning network are much more complex than
BIP101 and
      introduce new points of failure. It's hard enough to get folks
to trust the
      Bitcoin network after 7 years, so it will likely take years until
      sidechains and the lightning network are proven enough to be trusted =
by
      users.


   1.

   Some miners will be at a disadvantage with larger blocks.


   -

      As folks have pointed out multiple times, network speed is just one
      of many variables that impact mining profitability. I don't believe f=
or a
      second that every miner in China (57% of the network) would be negati=
vely
      impacted by larger blocks because some of them either have decent net=
work
      connections or connect to mining pools with decent network connection=
s.
      Miners will be given ample notice of a blocksize increase before
it occurs,
      so they will have time to make plans to deal with larger blocks. More
      transactions per block should also increase miner profitability becau=
se
      more transactions equals more users equals more transaction fees!

In conclusion, I think the next year is a make or break year for Bitcoin
and hope the developers do everything they can to come up with a reasonable
long term growth plan to put Bitcoin in the best possible position to be
successful.

--001a11c25ba25ad23e051ca713db
Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

<div dir=3D"ltr">
<p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">I am a long time Bitcoin user, miner,
investor, full node operator, and distributed real-time system
software engineer.</p>

<p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">Out of the all currently proposed
blocksize increase solutions, I support BIP101 (or something like it)
and find the current blocksize debate very frustrating, so I will try
to systematically debunk some common arguments against BIP101 below.</p>

<ol><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">We should not increase the
	blocksize because we&#39;ll just end up hitting the limit again at a futur=
e time.</p>
</li></ol>

<ul><ul><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">If a reasonable blocksize
		increase like BIP101 that scales with technology is implemented,
		it&#39;s not a given that we will hit the blocksize limit (consistently
		full blocks over an extended period of time) again in the future.
		Stating that we will definitely hit the blocksize limit again in
		the future is pure speculation about future bitcoin transaction
		volume that can&#39;t possibly be known at this time, and is nothing but
		conjecture. If technology increases faster than bitcoin transaction
		volume, simply scaling the Bitcoin blocksize could keep up with
		future demand. If Bitcoin is successful beyond our wildest dreams
		and future transaction volume outstrips future blockchain space,
		alternative solutions like sidechains or the lightning network will
		have more time to be implemented.=20
		</p></li></ul></ul>

<ol start=3D"2"><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">The full node count will=
 go down
	if we increase the blocksize because it will be more costly to run a
	full node.</p></li></ol>
<ul><ul><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">I&#39;m not sure this is true. I
		currently run a full node on a higher end consumer PC with a higher
		end home network connection, but if the blocksize limit is not
		raised and transaction fees increase such that it is no longer
		economical for me to access the bitcoin blockchain directly, I will
		no longer run a full node to support the network. Bitcoin is no
		longer interesting to me if it gets to the point where the average
		user is priced off the blockchain. Users that have direct access to
		the blockchain are more likely to run full nodes. If Bitcoin ever
		becomes purely a limited, small settlement network, I will no
		longer support it and move onto something else.</p>
	</li></ul></ul>
<ol start=3D"3"><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">The blocksize can only b=
e
	increased if there is developer =E2=80=9Cconsensus=E2=80=9D and the change=
 is
	not =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=9D.</p>
=09
</li></ol>
<ul><ul><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">Any blocksize increase will the
		deemed =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=9D and lack =E2=80=9Cconsensus=E2=80=
=9D, but doing
		nothing in the face of consistently full blocks and rising
		transaction fees is also =E2=80=9Ccontroversial=E2=80=9D and will lack
		=E2=80=9Cconsensus=E2=80=9D. Inaction, maintaining the status
		quo, and blocking a blocksize increase in the face of consistently
		full blocks and rising transaction fees is just as controversial as
		increasing the blocksize.</p>
	</li></ul></ul>

<ol start=3D"4"><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">Don&#39;t increase the b=
locksize now
	with all the promising work going on with sidechains and the
	lightning network.</p>
=09
</li></ol>
<ul><ul><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">KISS (keep it simple, stupid).
		When dealing with a highly complex, mission critical system, there
		needs to be a very compelling reason to choose a much more complex
		solution over a simple solution like BIP101. Sidechains and the
		lightning network are much more complex than BIP101 and introduce
		new points of failure. It&#39;s hard enough to get folks to trust the
		Bitcoin network after 7 years, so it will likely take years until
		sidechains and the lightning network are proven enough to be
		trusted by users.</p>
	</li></ul></ul>

<ol start=3D"5"><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">Some miners will be at a
	disadvantage with larger blocks.</p>
=09
</li></ol>
<ul><ul><li><p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">As folks have pointed out
		multiple times, network speed is just one of many variables that
		impact mining profitability. I don&#39;t believe for a second that
		every miner in China (57% of the network) would be negatively
		impacted by larger blocks because some of them either have decent
		network connections or connect to mining pools with decent network
		connections. Miners will be given ample notice of a blocksize
		increase before it occurs, so they will have time to make plans to
		deal with larger blocks. More transactions per block should also
		increase miner profitability because more transactions equals more
		users equals more transaction fees!=20
		</p>
	</li></ul></ul>

<p style=3D"margin-bottom:0in">In conclusion, I think the next year is
a make or break year for Bitcoin and hope the developers do
everything they can to come up with a reasonable long term growth
plan to put Bitcoin in the best possible position to be successful.</p>
</div>

--001a11c25ba25ad23e051ca713db--