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Date: Thu, 12 Dec 2024 18:07:28 -0800 (PST)
From: Ian Quantum <ianquantum2027@gmail.com>
To: Bitcoin Development Mailing List <bitcoindev@googlegroups.com>
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 <07384dbd-4b98-43db-a71a-e19a1d04f849n@googlegroups.com>
Subject: [bitcoindev] Re: Proposal for Quantum-Resistant Cryptography in
 Bitcoin - BIP Submission
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Some contributions of my own to add to this conversation.
FALCON wasn't approved by NIST because the security of the  algorithm is=20
directly linked to the randomness of the input parameters. There was a=20
similar concern over RSA about 25 years ago, and the question of the=20
exponent related to the operation as a matter of security. They weren't=20
sure if the exponent should be high, random or irrelevant to the security.=
=20
Turns out that it was irrelevant, so the cryptography community relaxed and=
=20
selected the exponent 3 for RSA for performance reasons with no cost to=20
security. When a parameter is so relevant to the security of FALCON it is=
=20
alarming, and the algorithm may be unsuitable for blockchain.=20

I would suggest NTRU Prime by Daniel Bernstein as a solid contender for=20
secure Lattice. Critically to a heterogenous environment, it is not=20
susceptible to side channel attacks so the keys cannot be stolen through=20
magnets next to a thumb drive. Daniel Bernstein managed to perform side=20
channel attacks 10 out of 10 times on multiple NIST PQ standards.

A quantum network runs 45x faster than the same qubits assigned to a single=
=20
machine. https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.15465
Quantum networks also require less wiring, and a 6000 node network of 1152=
=20
qubit machines can crack bitcoin in 10 minutes on=20
average. https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08585 The qubit count is expected to go=
=20
down by at least 30% by 2027 due to general improvement in the algorithm.=
=20
Litinski explained his algorithm at Crypto conference, and included further=
=20
optimizations to lower the qubit count and increase=20
performance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DAumHpDRS5iI

The scaling of some machines and algorithms is indeed=20
linear https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02892 but this is not always true. With=
=20
Active Volume, an 3x increase in nodes causes a 7x increase in performance.

Due to Grover's it is critical that 256 bit addresses be used. 160 bits is=
=20
simply too small to be future proof.

With the advent of quantum networks, the hardware is more achievable. Mass=
=20
production becomes the new paradigm, not IBM's flagship for gathering news=
=20
attention. PSI Quantum has solved mass=20
production https://arxiv.org/html/2404.17570v1 and has completed the entire=
=20
system end to end. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DA1tD4VXzswU=20

A reasonable estimate would be PSI Quantum breaking secp256k1 in 2027.=20
Hopefully we will get a 'canary warning' by breaking ECC-32 but to increase=
=20
scale to break ECC-256 would only be a 4x increase in total qubits.

Other candidates for mass production are:
Oxford Ionics, who produces 256 qubit machines that run at room=20
temperature. The trapped ion system is cooled and operates using lasers and=
=20
magnets.=20
Riverlane, who produces rapid components but is mostly focused on high=20
performance. Targeting 1 mil qubits in 2027 is a reasonable extrapolation=
=20
of their roadmap. (100k qubits in 2026 after 10k qubits in=20
2025.) https://www.riverlane.com/newsroom
Intel, who produces electron spin wafers with an unknown but extremely=20
large number of qubits per wafer. These devices are produced fully=20
autonomously and without intervention. 15 wafers are produced per day, per=
=20
manufacturing and testing device. More devices will probably be produced=20
soon, and they could potentially produce billions of qubits per week with=
=20
20 machines. They do not have any reports of algorithm on chip, networking,=
=20
or complete computing capabilities at this=20
time. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1693/intel-tak=
es-next-step-toward-building-scalable=20

I hope that we can make significant progress in getting Bitcoin quantum=20
safe.

Ian Smith
@IanSmith_HSA


On Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 12:38:44=E2=80=AFAM UTC+9 Jon Atack wrote:

> Hi Agustin,
>
> Good to see!
>
> Have you seen the work-in-progress BIP draft at=20
> https://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670?  It may be good to review each=
=20
> other (and possibly collaborate).
>
> Discussions/references to that draft:
> * https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/Aee8xKuIC2s/m/cu6xej1mBQAJ (Ma=
iling=20
> list discussion)
> * https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/proposing-a-p2qrh-bip-towards-a-quantum-
> resistant-soft-fork/956?u=3Dcryptoquick (Delving Bitcoin discussion)
> * https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/2024/06/14/ (Bitcoin Optech=20
> newsletter)
> * https://bitcoinops.org/en/podcast
> /2024/06/18/#draft-bip-for-quantum-safe-address-format (Bitcoin Optech=20
> discussion transcript)
>
> Best regards,
> Jon
>
> On Thursday, October 17, 2024 at 5:06:34=E2=80=AFPM UTC-6 Agustin Cruz wr=
ote:
>
> Dear Bitcoin Developers,=20
> I would like to propose a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) that aims to=
=20
> introduce quantum-resistant cryptography to the Bitcoin protocol. With th=
e=20
> rapid advancement in quantum computing, this proposal outlines the=20
> integration of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms (SPHINCS+ and=20
> Dilithium) to safeguard Bitcoin=E2=80=99s long-term security.
> =20
> The key points of the proposal are:=20
> - Introduction of quantum-resistant signature algorithms (SPHINCS+ and=20
> Dilithium).=20
> - New Bech32-based address formats for quantum-resistant addresses.=20
> - Modifications to transaction structures and script opcodes to support=
=20
> larger signature sizes.=20
> - A transition mechanism through a soft fork to ensure backward=20
> compatibility with existing Bitcoin addresses and transactions.=20
>
> The full BIP draft is available here=20
> https://github.com/chucrut/bips/blob/master/bip-xxxx.md for your review=
=20
> and feedback. I look forward to the community's input and am open to=20
> suggestions on how to improve the proposal.=20
>
> Best regards,
> Agust=C3=ADn Cruz
>
>

--=20
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "=
Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e=
mail to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/=
d142e67b-a0b1-49a0-9593-82053d55e3a5n%40googlegroups.com.

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Some contributions of my own to add to this conversation.<div>FALCON wasn't=
 approved by NIST because the security of the=C2=A0 algorithm is directly l=
inked to the randomness of the input parameters. There was a similar concer=
n over RSA about 25 years ago, and the question of the exponent related to =
the operation as a matter of security. They weren't sure if the exponent sh=
ould be high, random or irrelevant to the security. Turns out that it was i=
rrelevant, so the cryptography community relaxed and selected the exponent =
3 for RSA for performance reasons with no cost to security. When a paramete=
r is so relevant to the security of FALCON it is alarming, and the algorith=
m may be unsuitable for blockchain.=C2=A0</div><div><br /></div><div>I woul=
d suggest NTRU Prime by Daniel Bernstein as a solid contender for secure La=
ttice. Critically to a heterogenous environment, it is not susceptible to s=
ide channel attacks so the keys cannot be stolen through magnets next to a =
thumb drive. Daniel Bernstein managed to perform side channel attacks 10 ou=
t of 10 times on multiple NIST PQ standards.</div><div><br /></div><div>A q=
uantum network runs 45x faster than the same qubits assigned to a single ma=
chine. https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.15465</div><div>Quantum networks also req=
uire less wiring, and a 6000 node network of 1152 qubit machines can crack =
bitcoin in 10 minutes on average.=C2=A0https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.08585 The=
 qubit count is expected to go down by at least 30% by 2027 due to general =
improvement in the algorithm. Litinski explained his algorithm at Crypto co=
nference, and included further optimizations to lower the qubit count and i=
ncrease performance.=C2=A0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DAumHpDRS5iI</di=
v><div><br /></div><div>The scaling of some machines and algorithms is inde=
ed linear=C2=A0https://arxiv.org/abs/1808.02892 but this is not always true=
. With Active Volume, an 3x increase in nodes causes a 7x increase in perfo=
rmance.</div><div><br /></div><div>Due to Grover's it is critical that 256 =
bit addresses be used. 160 bits is simply too small to be future proof.</di=
v><div><br /></div><div>With the advent of quantum networks, the hardware i=
s more achievable. Mass production becomes the new paradigm, not IBM's flag=
ship for gathering news attention. PSI Quantum has solved mass production=
=C2=A0https://arxiv.org/html/2404.17570v1 and has completed the entire syst=
em end to end.=C2=A0https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DA1tD4VXzswU=C2=A0<br =
/><br />A reasonable estimate would be PSI Quantum breaking secp256k1 in 20=
27. Hopefully we will get a 'canary warning' by breaking ECC-32 but to incr=
ease scale to break ECC-256 would only be a 4x increase in total qubits.</d=
iv><div><br /></div><div>Other candidates for mass production are:</div><di=
v>Oxford Ionics, who produces 256 qubit machines that run at room temperatu=
re. The trapped ion system is cooled and operates using lasers and magnets.=
=C2=A0</div><div>Riverlane, who produces rapid components but is mostly foc=
used on high performance. Targeting 1 mil qubits in 2027 is a reasonable ex=
trapolation of their roadmap. (100k qubits in 2026 after 10k qubits in 2025=
.)=C2=A0https://www.riverlane.com/newsroom</div><div>Intel, who produces el=
ectron spin wafers with an unknown but extremely large number of qubits per=
 wafer. These devices are produced fully autonomously and without intervent=
ion. 15 wafers are produced per day, per manufacturing and testing device. =
More devices will probably be produced soon, and they could potentially pro=
duce billions of qubits per week with 20 machines. They do not have any rep=
orts of algorithm on chip, networking, or complete computing capabilities a=
t this time.=C2=A0https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/16=
93/intel-takes-next-step-toward-building-scalable=C2=A0</div><div><br /></d=
iv><div>I hope that we can make significant progress in getting Bitcoin qua=
ntum safe.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ian Smith</div><div>@IanSmith_HSA</di=
v><div><br /></div><br /><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div dir=3D"auto" class=
=3D"gmail_attr">On Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 12:38:44=E2=80=AFAM UTC+9 J=
on Atack wrote:<br/></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin=
: 0 0 0 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex=
;"><div>Hi Agustin,</div><div><br></div><div>Good to see!<br></div><div><br=
></div><div>Have you seen the work-in-progress BIP draft at <a href=3D"http=
s://github.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670" target=3D"_blank" rel=3D"nofollow" d=
ata-saferedirecturl=3D"https://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;q=3Dhttps://g=
ithub.com/bitcoin/bips/pull/1670&amp;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D1734140250359=
000&amp;usg=3DAOvVaw3_2CRv-71JyCxYdtz7ZgYM">https://github.com/bitcoin/bips=
/pull/1670</a>?=C2=A0 It may be good to review each other (and possibly col=
laborate).<br></div><div><br></div><div>Discussions/references to that draf=
t:<br></div><span><span><span><span><span><span>*<span> </span><a href=3D"h=
ttps://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/Aee8xKuIC2s/m/cu6xej1mBQAJ" rel=3D"=
noreferrer noopener nofollow" target=3D"_blank" data-saferedirecturl=3D"htt=
ps://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;q=3Dhttps://groups.google.com/g/bitcoin=
dev/c/Aee8xKuIC2s/m/cu6xej1mBQAJ&amp;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D1734140250359=
000&amp;usg=3DAOvVaw3tpaxxiAjfo9Mv0-T2rYtB">https://groups.google.<span>com=
</span>/<span>g</span>/<span>bitcoindev</span>/<span>c</span>/<span>Aee8xKu=
IC2s</span>/m/cu6xej1mBQAJ</a> <span>(Mailing list discussion</span>)</span=
></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><br>    <span><=
span>*<span> </span><a href=3D"https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/proposing-a-p2q=
rh-bip-towards-a-quantum-resistant-soft-fork/956?u=3Dcryptoquick" rel=3D"no=
referrer noopener nofollow" target=3D"_blank" data-saferedirecturl=3D"https=
://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;q=3Dhttps://delvingbitcoin.org/t/proposin=
g-a-p2qrh-bip-towards-a-quantum-resistant-soft-fork/956?u%3Dcryptoquick&amp=
;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D1734140250359000&amp;usg=3DAOvVaw3gDg-XCNQu6Doiy1=
mqvZuC">https://delvingbitcoin.org/t/<span>proposing</span>-a-<span>p2qrh</=
span>-<span>bip</span>-<span>towards</span>-<span>a</span>-<span>quantum</s=
pan>-<span>resistant</span>-soft-fork/956?u=3Dcryptoquick</a> <span>(Delvin=
g Bitcoin discussion</span></span></span></span></span></span></span>)<span=
><span><span><span><br></span></span></span></span><div><span><span><span><=
span>    <span><span>* <a href=3D"https://bitcoinops.org/en/newsletters/202=
4/06/14/" rel=3D"noreferrer noopener nofollow" target=3D"_blank" data-safer=
edirecturl=3D"https://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;q=3Dhttps://bitcoinops=
.org/en/newsletters/2024/06/14/&amp;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D17341402503590=
00&amp;usg=3DAOvVaw1lWrYAu4aJAa4XqbM4XgWA">https://bitcoinops.org/en/<span>=
newsletters</span>/2024/06/14/</a> <span>(Bitcoin Optech newsletter</span>)=
</span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div><span><span>*<span> </=
span><a href=3D"https://bitcoinops.org/en/podcast/2024/06/18/#draft-bip-for=
-quantum-safe-address-format" rel=3D"noreferrer noopener nofollow" target=
=3D"_blank" data-saferedirecturl=3D"https://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;=
q=3Dhttps://bitcoinops.org/en/podcast/2024/06/18/%23draft-bip-for-quantum-s=
afe-address-format&amp;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D1734140250359000&amp;usg=3D=
AOvVaw3LX-gMI3tt73Fh5_D6Aqo3">https://bitcoinops.org/en/<span>podcast</span=
>/2024/06/18/#draft-bip-for-quantum-safe-address-<span>format</span></a> <s=
pan>(Bitcoin Optech discussion transcript</span>)</span></span></div><br><d=
iv>Best regards,</div><div>Jon<br></div><br><div><div dir=3D"auto">On Thurs=
day, October 17, 2024 at 5:06:34=E2=80=AFPM UTC-6 Agustin Cruz wrote:<br></=
div><blockquote style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb=
(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr">Dear Bitcoin Developers,=
=C2=A0<div>I would like to propose a Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP) tha=
t aims to introduce quantum-resistant cryptography to the Bitcoin protocol.=
 With the rapid advancement in quantum computing, this proposal outlines th=
e integration of post-quantum cryptographic algorithms (SPHINCS+ and Dilith=
ium) to safeguard Bitcoin=E2=80=99s long-term security.</div><div>=C2=A0</d=
iv><div>The key points of the proposal are:=C2=A0</div><div>- Introduction =
of quantum-resistant signature algorithms (SPHINCS+ and Dilithium).=C2=A0</=
div><div>- New Bech32-based address formats for quantum-resistant addresses=
.=C2=A0</div><div>- Modifications to transaction structures and script opco=
des to support larger signature sizes.=C2=A0</div><div>- A transition mecha=
nism through a soft fork to ensure backward compatibility with existing Bit=
coin addresses and transactions.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>The full BI=
P draft is available here=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://github.com/chucrut/bips/b=
lob/master/bip-xxxx.md" rel=3D"nofollow" target=3D"_blank" data-saferedirec=
turl=3D"https://www.google.com/url?hl=3Den&amp;q=3Dhttps://github.com/chucr=
ut/bips/blob/master/bip-xxxx.md&amp;source=3Dgmail&amp;ust=3D17341402503590=
00&amp;usg=3DAOvVaw0cFm_rN4Fp9q2DVKTpucMX">https://github.com/chucrut/bips/=
blob/master/bip-xxxx.md</a>=C2=A0for your review and feedback. I look forwa=
rd to the community&#39;s input and am open to suggestions on how to improv=
e the proposal.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>Best regards,<br></div><div>=
Agust=C3=ADn Cruz</div></div>
</blockquote></div></blockquote></div>

<p></p>

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