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From: Alfie John <alfie@alfie.wtf>
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Date: Sun, 1 Jan 2023 23:42:50 +1100
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To: Peter Todd <pete@petertodd.org>,
Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
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On 31 Dec 2022, at 10:28 am, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev =
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
>=20
>> This way:
>>=20
>> 1. system cannot be played
>> 2. only in case of destructive halving: system waits for the recovery =
of network security
>=20
> The immediate danger we have with halvings is that in a competitive =
market,
> profit margins tend towards marginal costs - the cost to produce an =
additional
> unit of production - rather than total costs - the cost necessary to =
recover
> prior and future expenses. Since the halving is a sudden shock to the =
system,
> under the right conditions we could have a significant amount of =
hashing power
> just barely able to afford to hash prior to the halving, resulting in =
all that
> hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees increasing =
dramatically,
> and likely, chaotically. Your proposal does not address that problem =
as it can
> only measure difficulty prior to the halving point.
> ... Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system
Is it though? Since everyone knows of the possible outcomes, wouldn't a =
possible halving be priced in?=20
> resulting in all that hashing power immediately having to shut down =
and fees increasing dramatically
Which should cause that hashing power to come back because of this fee =
increases.
Alfie
--
Alfie John
https://www.alfie <https://www.alfie/>.wtf=
--Apple-Mail=_1765C68F-4363-4982-AB44-024DAE8DA03D
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
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charset=us-ascii
<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"content-type" content=3D"text/html; =
charset=3Dus-ascii"></head><body style=3D"overflow-wrap: break-word; =
-webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;"><span =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">On 31 Dec =
2022, at 10:28 am, Peter Todd via bitcoin-dev =
<bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:</span><br =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><div =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><blockquote =
type=3D"cite"><br><div><blockquote type=3D"cite">This way:<br><br>1. =
system cannot be played<br>2. only in case of destructive halving: =
system waits for the recovery of network =
security<br></blockquote><br>The immediate danger we have with halvings =
is that in a competitive market,<br>profit margins tend towards marginal =
costs - the cost to produce an additional<br>unit of production - rather =
than total costs - the cost necessary to recover<br>prior and future =
expenses. Since the halving is a sudden shock to the system,<br>under =
the right conditions we could have a significant amount of hashing =
power<br>just barely able to afford to hash prior to the halving, =
resulting in all that<br>hashing power immediately having to shut down =
and fees increasing dramatically,<br>and likely, chaotically. Your =
proposal does not address that problem as it can<br>only measure =
difficulty prior to the halving point.<br></div></blockquote></div><div =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, =
0);"><div><blockquote type=3D"cite">... Since the halving is a sudden =
shock to the system</blockquote><br></div><div>Is it though? Since =
everyone knows of the possible outcomes, wouldn't a possible halving be =
priced in? </div></div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); =
color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); =
color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><blockquote type=3D"cite">resulting in all =
that hashing power immediately having to shut down and fees =
increasing dramatically</blockquote><br></div><div style=3D"caret-color: =
rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">Which should cause that hashing =
power to come back because of this fee increases.</div><div =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br></div><div =
style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, =
0);">Alfie</div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, =
0, 0);"><br></div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, =
0, 0);">--</div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: rgb(0, =
0, 0);">Alfie John</div><div style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); color: =
rgb(0, 0, 0);"><a =
href=3D"https://www.alfie/">https://www.alfie</a>.wtf</div></body></html>=
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