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authorGregory Maxwell <gmaxwell@gmail.com>2015-05-07 00:37:54 +0000
committerbitcoindev <bitcoindev@gnusha.org>2015-05-07 00:38:02 +0000
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Re: [Bitcoin-development] Block Size Increase
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+Date: Thu, 7 May 2015 00:37:54 +0000
+Message-ID: <CAAS2fgSGb2eNpDO=wwv5xqvHqhyXvhXZdRM0FkoVy96bF8D4mw@mail.gmail.com>
+From: Gregory Maxwell <gmaxwell@gmail.com>
+To: Matt Corallo <bitcoin-list@bluematt.me>
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+Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
+Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Block Size Increase
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+On Wed, May 6, 2015 at 10:12 PM, Matt Corallo <bitcoin-list@bluematt.me>
+wrote: > Recently there has been a flurry of posts by Gavin at >
+http://gavinandresen.svbtle.com/ which advocate strongly for increasing >
+the maximum block size. However, there hasnt been any discussion on this >
+mailing list in several years as far as I can tell.
+
+Thanks Matt; I was actually really confused by this sudden push with
+not a word here or on Github--so much so that I responded on Reddit to
+people pointing to commits in Gavin's personal repository saying they
+were reading too much into it.
+
+So please forgive me for the more than typical disorganization in this
+message; I've been caught a bit flatfooted on this and I'm trying to
+catch up. I'm juggling a fair amount of sudden pressure in my mailbox,
+and trying to navigate complex discussions in about eight different
+forums concurrently.
+
+There have been about a kazillion pages of discussion elsewhere
+(e.g. public IRC and Bitcointalk; private discussions in the past),
+not all of which is well known, and I can't hope to summarize even a
+tiny fraction of it in a single message-- but that's no reason to not
+start on it.
+
+> Block size is a question to which there is no answer, but which >
+certainly has a LOT of technical tradeoffs to consider.
+
+There are several orthogonal angles from which block size is a concern
+(both increases and non-increases). Most of them have subtle implications
+and each are worth its own research paper or six, so it can be difficult
+to only touch them slightly without creating a gish gallop that is hard
+to respond to.
+
+We're talking about tuning one of the fundamental scarcities of the
+Bitcoin Economy and cryptosystem--leaving the comfort of "rule by
+math" and venturing into the space of political decisions; elsewhere
+you'd expect to see really in-depth neutral analysis of the risks and
+tradeoffs, technically and economically. And make no mistake: there
+are real tradeoffs here, though we don't know their exact contours.
+
+Fundamentally this question exposes ideological differences between people
+interested in Bitcoin. Is Bitcoin more of a digital gold or is it more
+of a competitor to Square? Is Bitcoin something that should improve
+personal and commercial autonomy from central banks? From commercial
+banks? Or from just the existing status-quo commercial banks? What are
+people's fundamental rights with Bitcoin? Do participants have a
+right to mine? How much control should third parties have over their
+transactions? How much security must be provided? Is there a deadline
+for world domination or bust? Is Bitcoin only for the developed world?
+Must it be totally limited by the most impoverished parts of the world?
+
+Bitcoin exists at the intersection of many somewhat overlapping belief
+systems--and people of many views can find that Bitcoin meets their
+needs even when they don't completely agree politically. When Bitcoin
+is changed fundamentally, via a hard fork, to have different properties,
+the change can create winners or losers (if nothing else, then in terms
+of the kind of ideology supported by it).
+
+There are non-trivial number of people who hold extremes on any of
+these general belief patterns; Even among the core developers there is
+not a consensus on Bitcoin's optimal role in society and the commercial
+marketplace.
+
+To make it clear how broad the views go, even without getting into
+monetary policy... some people even argue that Bitcoin should act
+as censor-resistant storage system for outlawed content; -- I think
+this view is unsound, not achievable with the technology, and largely
+incompatible with Bitcoin's use as a money (because it potentially
+creates an externalized legal/harassment liability for node operators);
+but these are my personal value judgments; the view is earnestly held
+by more than a few; and that's a group that certainly wants the largest
+possible blocksizes (though even then that won't be enough).
+
+The subject is complicated even more purely on the technical side
+by the fact that Bitcoin has a layered security model which is not
+completely defined or understood: Bitcoin is secure if a majority of
+hashrate is "honest" (where "honesty" is a technical term which means
+"follows the right rules" without fail, even at a loss), but why might
+it be honest? That sends us into complex economic and social arguments,
+and the security thresholds start becoming worse when we assume some
+miners are economically rational instead of "honest".
+
+> increase in the near future. Long-term incentive compatibility requires
+> that there be some fee pressure, and that blocks be relatively >
+consistently full or very nearly full. What we see today are
+
+To elaborate, in my view there is a at least a two fold concern on this
+particular ("Long term Mining incentives") front:
+
+One is that the long-held argument is that security of the Bitcoin system
+in the long term depends on fee income funding autonomous, anonymous,
+decentralized miners profitably applying enough hash-power to make
+reorganizations infeasible.
+
+For fees to achieve this purpose, there seemingly must be an effective
+scarcity of capacity. The fact that verifying and transmitting
+transactions has a cost isn't enough, because all the funds go to pay
+that cost and none to the POW "artificial" cost; e.g., if verification
+costs 1 then the market price for fees should converge to 1, and POW
+cost will converge towards zero because they adapt to whatever is
+being applied. Moreover, the transmission and verification costs can
+be perfectly amortized by using large centralized pools (and efficient
+differential block transmission like the "O(1)" idea) as you can verify
+one time instead of N times, so to the extent that verification/bandwidth
+is a non-negligible cost to miners at all, it's a strong pressure to
+centralize. You can understand this intuitively: think for example of
+carbon credit cap-and-trade: the trade part doesn't work without an
+actual cap; if everyone was born with a 1000 petaton carbon balance,
+the market price for credits would be zero and the program couldn't hope
+to share behavior. In the case of mining, we're trying to optimize the
+social good of POW security. (But the analogy applies in other ways too:
+increases to the chain side are largely an externality; miners enjoy the
+benefits, everyone else takes the costs--either in reduced security or
+higher node operating else.)
+
+This area has been subject to a small amount of academic research
+(e.g. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2400519). But
+there is still much that is unclear.
+
+The second is that when subsidy has fallen well below fees, the incentive
+to move the blockchain forward goes away. An optimal rational miner
+would be best off forking off the current best block in order to capture
+its fees, rather than moving the blockchain forward, until they hit
+the maximum. That's where the "backlog" comment comes from, since when
+there is a sufficient backlog it's better to go forward. I'm not aware
+of specific research into this subquestion; it's somewhat fuzzy because
+of uncertainty about the security model. If we try to say that Bitcoin
+should work even in the face of most miners being profit-maximizing
+instead of altruistically-honest, we must assume the chain will not
+more forward so long as a block isn't full. In reality there is more
+altruism than zero; there are public pressures; there is laziness, etc.
+
+One potential argument is that maybe miners would be _regulated_ to
+behave correctly. But this would require undermining the openness of the
+system--where anyone can mine anonymously--in order to enforce behavior,
+and that same enforcement mechanism would leave a political level to
+impose additional rules that violate the extra properties of the system.
+
+So far the mining ecosystem has become incredibly centralized over time.
+I believe I am the only remaining committer who mines, and only a few
+of the regular contributors to Bitcoin Core do. Many participants
+have never mined or only did back in 2010/2011... we've basically
+ignored the mining ecosystem, and this has had devastating effects,
+causing a latent undermining of the security model: hacking a dozen or
+so computers--operated under totally unknown and probably not strong
+security policies--could compromise the network at least at the tip...
+Rightfully we should be regarding this an an emergency, and probably
+should have been have since 2011. This doesn't bode well for our ability
+to respond if a larger blocksize goes poorly. In kicking the can with
+the trivial change to just bump the size, are we making an implicit
+decision to go down a path that has a conclusion we don't want?
+
+(There are also shorter term mining incentives concerns; which Peter
+Todd has written more about, that I'll omit for now)
+
+> pretending these systems scale. Thus, instead of working on technologies
+> which bring Bitcoin's trustlessness to systems which scale beyond a
+
+I made a few relevant points back in 2011
+(https://en.bitcoin.it/w/index.php?title=Scalability&action=historysubmit&diff=14273&oldid=14112)
+after Dan Kaminsky argued that Bitcoin's decentralization was pretext:
+that it was patently centralized since scaling directly in the network
+would undermine decentralization, that the Bitcoin network necessarily
+makes particular tradeoffs which prevent it from concurrently being all
+things to all people. But tools like the Lightning network proposal could
+well allow us to hit a greater spectrum of demands at once--including
+secure zero-confirmation (something that larger blocksizes reduce if
+anything), which is important for many applications. With the right
+technology I believe we can have our cake and eat it too, but there needs
+to be a reason to build it; the security and decentralization level of
+Bitcoin imposes a _hard_ upper limit on anything that can be based on it.
+
+Another key point here is that the small bumps in blocksize which
+wouldn't clearly knock the system into a largely centralized mode--small
+constants--are small enough that they don't quantitatively change the
+operation of the system; they don't open up new applications that aren't
+possible today. Deathandtaxes on the forum argued that Bitcoin needs
+a several hundred megabyte blocksize to directly meet the worldwide
+transaction needs _without retail_... Why without retail? Retail needs
+near instant soft security, which cannot be achieved directly with a
+global decentralized blockchain.
+
+I don't think 1MB is magic; it always exists relative to widely-deployed
+technology, sociology, and economics. But these factors aren't a simple
+function; the procedure I'd prefer would be something like this: if there
+is a standing backlog, we-the-community of users look to indicators to
+gauge if the network is losing decentralization and then double the
+hard limit with proper controls to allow smooth adjustment without
+fees going to zero (see the past proposals for automatic block size
+controls that let miners increase up to a hard maximum over the median
+if they mine at quadratically harder difficulty), and we don't increase
+if it appears it would be at a substantial increase in centralization
+risk. Hardfork changes should only be made if they're almost completely
+uncontroversial--where virtually everyone can look at the available data
+and say "yea, that isn't undermining my property rights or future use
+of Bitcoin; it's no big deal". Unfortunately, every indicator I can
+think of except fee totals has been going in the wrong direction almost
+monotonically along with the blockchain size increase since 2012 when
+we started hitting full blocks and responded by increasing the default
+soft target. This is frustrating; from a clean slate analysis of network
+health I think my conclusion would be to _decrease_ the limit below the
+current 300k/txn/day level.
+
+This is obviously not acceptable, so instead many people--myself
+included--have been working feverishly hard behind the scenes on Bitcoin
+Core to increase the scalability. This work isn't small-potatoes
+boring software engineering stuff; I mean even my personal contributions
+include things like inventing a wholly new generic algebraic optimization
+applicable to all EC signature schemes that increases performance by 4%,
+and that is before getting into the R&D stuff that hasn't really borne
+fruit yet, like fraud proofs. Today Bitcoin Core is easily >100 times
+faster to synchronize and relay than when I first got involved on the
+same hardware, but these improvements have been swallowed by the growth.
+The ironic thing is that our frantic efforts to keep ahead and not
+lose decentralization have both not been enough (by the best measures,
+full node usage is the lowest its been since 2011 even though the user
+base is huge now) and yet also so much that people could seriously talk
+about increasing the block size to something gigantic like 20MB. This
+sounds less reasonable when you realize that even at 1MB we'd likely
+have a smoking hole in the ground if not for existing enormous efforts
+to make scaling not come at a loss of decentralization.
+
+
+I'm curious as to what discussions people have seen; e.g., are people
+even here aware of these concerns? Are you aware of things like the
+hashcash mediated dynamic blocksize limiting? About proposals like
+lightning network (instant transactions and massive scale, in exchange
+for some short term DOS risk if a counterparty opts out)? Do people
+(other than Mike Hearn; I guess) think a future where everyone depends
+on a small number of "Google scale" node operations for the system is
+actually okay? (I think not, and if so we're never going to agree--but
+it can be helpful to understand when a disagreement is ideological).
+
+