diff options
| author | Michael Cassano <mcassano@gmail.com> | 2024-12-19 10:25:34 -0700 |
|---|---|---|
| committer | bitcoindev <bitcoindev@googlegroups.com> | 2024-12-19 11:48:17 -0800 |
| commit | 3b8683c6ea1fde6f00e37b0dc7b20f322790d3c4 (patch) | |
| tree | 320d33a6ae622808c82cd02e9f2e699f41582f2f | |
| parent | 2b2a4c07d87ba4dd0d7ad9b73dbdb5881c4b63cd (diff) | |
| download | pi-bitcoindev-3b8683c6ea1fde6f00e37b0dc7b20f322790d3c4.tar.gz pi-bitcoindev-3b8683c6ea1fde6f00e37b0dc7b20f322790d3c4.zip | |
Re: [bitcoindev] Double Exponential Hash Rate Growth and Difficulty Adjustment
| -rw-r--r-- | 77/62162e6bf87c1b7b6e2283c375613b1dc42650 | 347 |
1 files changed, 347 insertions, 0 deletions
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[2a00:1450:4864:20::331]) + by gmr-mx.google.com with ESMTPS id 5b1f17b1804b1-4364a376b54si4956585e9.0.2024.12.19.09.25.46 + for <bitcoindev@googlegroups.com> + (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_128_GCM_SHA256 bits=128/128); + Thu, 19 Dec 2024 09:25:46 -0800 (PST) +Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of mcassano@gmail.com designates 2a00:1450:4864:20::331 as permitted sender) client-ip=2a00:1450:4864:20::331; +Received: by mail-wm1-x331.google.com with SMTP id 5b1f17b1804b1-4364a37a1d7so10829125e9.3 + for <bitcoindev@googlegroups.com>; Thu, 19 Dec 2024 09:25:46 -0800 (PST) +X-Gm-Gg: ASbGncu5ysASgK0ufGBJ06jQZS8V/+0+wp89emol18knQwGwnhK9sP5FIFR2IvmD2T8 + tRgp8NrDiSOURCkeM0PlXTsQBUlyD0lfwNcv3 +X-Received: by 2002:a05:600c:4f44:b0:435:9ed3:5698 with SMTP id + 5b1f17b1804b1-43655400035mr71264575e9.24.1734629145655; Thu, 19 Dec 2024 + 09:25:45 -0800 (PST) +MIME-Version: 1.0 +References: <e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a5dd148b45n@googlegroups.com> +In-Reply-To: <e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a5dd148b45n@googlegroups.com> +From: Michael Cassano <mcassano@gmail.com> +Date: Thu, 19 Dec 2024 10:25:34 -0700 +Message-ID: <CAAg3Je1hVqcR_DGZEXhaeO7CEU1k-SLx_1QX=XmnS2Bn11joXw@mail.gmail.com> +Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] Double Exponential Hash Rate Growth and Difficulty Adjustment +To: Anders <blabline@gmail.com> +Cc: Bitcoin Development Mailing List <bitcoindev@googlegroups.com> +Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0000000000000b41e90629a2d261" +X-Original-Sender: mcassano@gmail.com +X-Original-Authentication-Results: gmr-mx.google.com; dkim=pass + header.i=@gmail.com header.s=20230601 header.b="HSt1Jz/v"; spf=pass + (google.com: domain of mcassano@gmail.com designates 2a00:1450:4864:20::331 + as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=mcassano@gmail.com; dmarc=pass + (p=NONE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=gmail.com; dara=pass header.i=@googlegroups.com +Precedence: list +Mailing-list: list bitcoindev@googlegroups.com; contact bitcoindev+owners@googlegroups.com +List-ID: <bitcoindev.googlegroups.com> +X-Google-Group-Id: 786775582512 +List-Post: <https://groups.google.com/group/bitcoindev/post>, <mailto:bitcoindev@googlegroups.com> +List-Help: <https://groups.google.com/support/>, <mailto:bitcoindev+help@googlegroups.com> +List-Archive: <https://groups.google.com/group/bitcoindev +List-Subscribe: <https://groups.google.com/group/bitcoindev/subscribe>, <mailto:bitcoindev+subscribe@googlegroups.com> +List-Unsubscribe: <mailto:googlegroups-manage+786775582512+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com>, + <https://groups.google.com/group/bitcoindev/subscribe> +X-Spam-Score: -0.5 (/) + +--0000000000000b41e90629a2d261 +Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" +Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable + +Hi Anders, + +Thank you for the question. + +A solution is to keep miners on SHA256 (instead of switching to a hash that +allows for a larger range of difficulty targets) but to require them to +hash again to achieve a secondary difficulty target. + +At max target difficulty miners would publish blocks when SHA256(header) = +=3D=3D +1 and when SHA256(SHA256(header)) <=3D secondary_target where +secondary_target adjusts up and down if primary_target is 1 (where +primary_target represents today's target difficulty). + +Nodes then verify blocks by checking that SHA256(header) is =3D=3D 1 and th= +at +SHA256(SHA256(header) is less than secondary_target. + +Best regards, +Mike + +On Wed, Dec 18, 2024 at 6:21=E2=80=AFPM Anders <blabline@gmail.com> wrote: + +> Hi, +> +> I've been looking into the long-term implications of the Bitcoin hash rat= +e +> growth for the difficulty adjustment mechanism, and I'd like to discuss a +> potential concern related to double exponential growth. +> +> As we know, the difficulty adjustment mechanism aims to maintain an +> average block time of approximately 10 minutes by adjusting the target +> value every 2016 blocks. This target value, when represented in +> hexadecimal, effectively determines the number of leading zeros required +> for a valid block hash. +> +> The Bitcoin hash rate has historically shown a strong exponential growth +> trend, driven by advancements in ASIC technology. However, some +> observations suggest that this growth might be accelerating, potentially +> exhibiting double exponential growth (meaning the rate of exponential +> growth is itself increasing exponentially). +> +> If the hash rate were to continue to grow at a double exponential rate, +> the difficulty would need to increase at an accelerating pace to maintain +> the 10-minute block time. This would mean the number of leading zeros in +> the target value would also need to increase at an accelerating rate. +> +> Since the target value is a 256-bit number (64 hexadecimal digits), +> there's a finite limit to the number of leading zeros it can have. With +> approximately 19-20 leading zeros currently observed, there are only abou= +t +> 44-45 zeros "left" before reaching this limit. +> +> My concern is that with double exponential hash rate growth, we could +> reach this limit much faster than a simple linear projection would sugges= +t, +> potentially within a decade. Once this limit is reached, the current +> difficulty adjustment mechanism would become ineffective, potentially +> leading to unstable block times and network instability. +> +> My questions for the list are: +> +> 1. Has there been more formal analysis of the Bitcoin hash rate trend to +> assess the likelihood of double exponential growth? Are there any existin= +g +> studies or analyses I should be aware of? +> +> 2. If double exponential growth continues, what are the most promising +> approaches to address this potential issue in the long term? +> +> 3. What are the trade-offs associated with different solutions, such as +> more frequent difficulty adjustments, changing the difficulty adjustment +> algorithm, or changing the proof-of-work algorithm entirely? +> +> Thanks, +> +> Anders +> +> -- +> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups +> "Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. +> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an +> email to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. +> To view this discussion visit +> https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a5= +dd148b45n%40googlegroups.com +> <https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a= +5dd148b45n%40googlegroups.com?utm_medium=3Demail&utm_source=3Dfooter> +> . +> + +--=20 +You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= +Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group. +To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= +mail to bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com. +To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/= +CAAg3Je1hVqcR_DGZEXhaeO7CEU1k-SLx_1QX%3DXmnS2Bn11joXw%40mail.gmail.com. + +--0000000000000b41e90629a2d261 +Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" +Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable + +<div dir=3D"ltr">Hi Anders,<div><br></div><div>Thank you for the question.<= +/div><div><br></div><div>A solution is to keep miners on SHA256 (instead of= + switching to a hash that allows for a larger range of difficulty targets) = +but to require them to hash again to achieve a secondary difficulty target.= +</div><div><br></div><div>At max target difficulty miners would publish blo= +cks when SHA256(header) =3D=3D 1 and when SHA256(SHA256(header)) <=3D se= +condary_target where secondary_target adjusts up and down if primary_target= + is 1 (where primary_target represents today's target difficulty).</div= +><div><br></div><div>Nodes then verify blocks by checking that SHA256(heade= +r) is =3D=3D 1 and that SHA256(SHA256(header) is less than secondary_target= +.</div><div><br></div><div>Best regards,</div><div>Mike</div></div><br><div= + class=3D"gmail_quote gmail_quote_container"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmai= +l_attr">On Wed, Dec 18, 2024 at 6:21=E2=80=AFPM Anders <<a href=3D"mailt= +o:blabline@gmail.com">blabline@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br></div><blockquot= +e class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left-width= +:1px;border-left-style:solid;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);padding-lef= +t:1ex">Hi,<br><br>I've been looking into the long-term implications of = +the Bitcoin hash rate growth for the difficulty adjustment mechanism, and I= +'d like to discuss a potential concern related to double exponential gr= +owth.<br><br>As we know, the difficulty adjustment mechanism aims to mainta= +in an average block time of approximately 10 minutes by adjusting the targe= +t value every 2016 blocks. This target value, when represented in hexadecim= +al, effectively determines the number of leading zeros required for a valid= + block hash.<br><br>The Bitcoin hash rate has historically shown a strong e= +xponential growth trend, driven by advancements in ASIC technology. However= +, some observations suggest that this growth might be accelerating, potenti= +ally exhibiting double exponential growth (meaning the rate of exponential = +growth is itself increasing exponentially).<br><br>If the hash rate were to= + continue to grow at a double exponential rate, the difficulty would need t= +o increase at an accelerating pace to maintain the 10-minute block time. Th= +is would mean the number of leading zeros in the target value would also ne= +ed to increase at an accelerating rate.<br><br>Since the target value is a = +256-bit number (64 hexadecimal digits), there's a finite limit to the n= +umber of leading zeros it can have. With approximately 19-20 leading zeros = +currently observed, there are only about 44-45 zeros "left" befor= +e reaching this limit.<br><br>My concern is that with double exponential ha= +sh rate growth, we could reach this limit much faster than a simple linear = +projection would suggest, potentially within a decade. Once this limit is r= +eached, the current difficulty adjustment mechanism would become ineffectiv= +e, potentially leading to unstable block times and network instability.<br>= +<br>My questions for the list are:<br><br>1. Has there been more formal ana= +lysis of the Bitcoin hash rate trend to assess the likelihood of double exp= +onential growth? Are there any existing studies or analyses I should be awa= +re of?<div><br>2. If double exponential growth continues, what are the most= + promising approaches to address this potential issue in the long term?</di= +v><div><br>3. What are the trade-offs associated with different solutions, = +such as more frequent difficulty adjustments, changing the difficulty adjus= +tment algorithm, or changing the proof-of-work algorithm entirely?</div><di= +v><br>Thanks,<br><div><br></div><div>Anders</div></div> + +<p></p> + +-- <br> +You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups &= +quot;Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group.<br> +To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= +mail to <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com" target= +=3D"_blank">bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com</a>.<br> +To view this discussion visit <a href=3D"https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/= +bitcoindev/e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a5dd148b45n%40googlegroups.com?utm_med= +ium=3Demail&utm_source=3Dfooter" target=3D"_blank">https://groups.googl= +e.com/d/msgid/bitcoindev/e86753f2-1c79-484d-8f61-47a5dd148b45n%40googlegrou= +ps.com</a>.<br> +</blockquote></div> + +<p></p> + +-- <br /> +You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups &= +quot;Bitcoin Development Mailing List" group.<br /> +To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= +mail to <a href=3D"mailto:bitcoindev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com">bitcoind= +ev+unsubscribe@googlegroups.com</a>.<br /> +To view this discussion visit <a href=3D"https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/= +bitcoindev/CAAg3Je1hVqcR_DGZEXhaeO7CEU1k-SLx_1QX%3DXmnS2Bn11joXw%40mail.gma= +il.com?utm_medium=3Demail&utm_source=3Dfooter">https://groups.google.com/d/= +msgid/bitcoindev/CAAg3Je1hVqcR_DGZEXhaeO7CEU1k-SLx_1QX%3DXmnS2Bn11joXw%40ma= +il.gmail.com</a>.<br /> + +--0000000000000b41e90629a2d261-- + |