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| author | Alex Mizrahi <alex.mizrahi@gmail.com> | 2014-10-25 22:53:57 +0300 |
|---|---|---|
| committer | bitcoindev <bitcoindev@gnusha.org> | 2014-10-25 19:54:04 +0000 |
| commit | 1eb54860ee418aaac5625e613d6bd6891cd7dcc9 (patch) | |
| tree | 6d0635b607becc032b43c6acabcf2c0fa93eb383 | |
| parent | 186f083f1048199a92774340f1a5706dc0d34bf2 (diff) | |
| download | pi-bitcoindev-1eb54860ee418aaac5625e613d6bd6891cd7dcc9.tar.gz pi-bitcoindev-1eb54860ee418aaac5625e613d6bd6891cd7dcc9.zip | |
Re: [Bitcoin-development] death by halving
| -rw-r--r-- | b7/83833038db3239f23f32aee7e59613ade9acdb | 141 |
1 files changed, 141 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/b7/83833038db3239f23f32aee7e59613ade9acdb b/b7/83833038db3239f23f32aee7e59613ade9acdb new file mode 100644 index 000000000..15a69d33a --- /dev/null +++ b/b7/83833038db3239f23f32aee7e59613ade9acdb @@ -0,0 +1,141 @@ +Received: from sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com ([172.29.43.191] + helo=mx.sourceforge.net) + by sfs-ml-1.v29.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtp (Exim 4.76) + (envelope-from <alex.mizrahi@gmail.com>) id 1Xi7PY-0000bB-CG + for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; + Sat, 25 Oct 2014 19:54:04 +0000 +Received-SPF: pass (sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com: domain of gmail.com + designates 209.85.214.177 as permitted sender) + client-ip=209.85.214.177; envelope-from=alex.mizrahi@gmail.com; + helo=mail-ob0-f177.google.com; +Received: from mail-ob0-f177.google.com ([209.85.214.177]) + by sog-mx-1.v43.ch3.sourceforge.com with esmtps (TLSv1:RC4-SHA:128) + (Exim 4.76) id 1Xi7PX-0000Zw-A3 + for bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net; + Sat, 25 Oct 2014 19:54:04 +0000 +Received: by mail-ob0-f177.google.com with SMTP id m8so926737obr.8 + for <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>; + Sat, 25 Oct 2014 12:53:57 -0700 (PDT) +MIME-Version: 1.0 +X-Received: by 10.182.79.41 with SMTP id g9mr10664610obx.14.1414266837807; + Sat, 25 Oct 2014 12:53:57 -0700 (PDT) +Received: by 10.202.168.142 with HTTP; Sat, 25 Oct 2014 12:53:57 -0700 (PDT) +In-Reply-To: <CABsx9T1RPkif1+DEsOLrFfr-sE=FCs_B5C5aZzKr6HZCHw15ag@mail.gmail.com> +References: <CAE28kUS-uDbd_Br3H5BxwRm1PZFpOwLhcyyZT9b1_VfRaBC9jw@mail.gmail.com> + <CAJHLa0PeB-DMs2zo680FRvaejV-K97k2g0Ti9pPdaNeH+gYmog@mail.gmail.com> + <CAE28kUSPb3ZC1nJyX7H__7cAgXvOvPbZ+Tub+htGd5+tujZndg@mail.gmail.com> + <CAJHLa0M20QjBOwhOwJWJUcPBLzmaX1uuPy-6ytvJQWLZy68aeg@mail.gmail.com> + <CAE28kUS7cr3i-pSew6Y+xvfLEY5D1mi4oHU-GXv+jEf-i_8sVQ@mail.gmail.com> + <CABsx9T1RPkif1+DEsOLrFfr-sE=FCs_B5C5aZzKr6HZCHw15ag@mail.gmail.com> +Date: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 22:53:57 +0300 +Message-ID: <CAE28kUS5otH3q6BPETANw6PaDCrrs1+Sm+LMNnv_TK-viGRFLQ@mail.gmail.com> +From: Alex Mizrahi <alex.mizrahi@gmail.com> +To: Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com> +Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary=047d7b2e468a7c3802050644a842 +X-Spam-Score: -0.6 (/) +X-Spam-Report: Spam Filtering performed by mx.sourceforge.net. + See http://spamassassin.org/tag/ for more details. + -1.5 SPF_CHECK_PASS SPF reports sender host as permitted sender for + sender-domain + 0.0 FREEMAIL_FROM Sender email is commonly abused enduser mail provider + (alex.mizrahi[at]gmail.com) + -0.0 SPF_PASS SPF: sender matches SPF record + 1.0 HTML_MESSAGE BODY: HTML included in message + -0.1 DKIM_VALID_AU Message has a valid DKIM or DK signature from + author's domain + 0.1 DKIM_SIGNED Message has a DKIM or DK signature, + not necessarily valid + -0.1 DKIM_VALID Message has at least one valid DKIM or DK signature +X-Headers-End: 1Xi7PX-0000Zw-A3 +Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net> +Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] death by halving +X-BeenThere: bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net +X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.9 +Precedence: list +List-Id: <bitcoin-development.lists.sourceforge.net> +List-Unsubscribe: <https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development>, + <mailto:bitcoin-development-request@lists.sourceforge.net?subject=unsubscribe> +List-Archive: <http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/forum.php?forum_name=bitcoin-development> +List-Post: <mailto:bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net> +List-Help: <mailto:bitcoin-development-request@lists.sourceforge.net?subject=help> +List-Subscribe: <https://lists.sourceforge.net/lists/listinfo/bitcoin-development>, + <mailto:bitcoin-development-request@lists.sourceforge.net?subject=subscribe> +X-List-Received-Date: Sat, 25 Oct 2014 19:54:04 -0000 + +--047d7b2e468a7c3802050644a842 +Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 + +> We had a halving, and it was a non-event. +> Is there some reason to believe next time will be different? +> + +Yes. + +When the market is rapidly growing, margins can be relatively high because +of limited amounts of capital being invested, or introduction of more +efficient technologies. + +However, we should expect market to become more mature with time, and a +mature market will result in lower margins. +The halving can do much more damage when margins are relatively small. + +Besides that, there is a difference in ecosystem maturity: + +1. Back in 2012, miners weren't so focused on profits, as Bitcoin was +highly experimental: some were mining for the hell of it (it was a novelty +thing back then), others wanted to secure the network, others did it +because it was hard to obtain bitcoins by other means. But now miners are +mostly profit-motivated: they buy expensive dedicated mining equipment and +want to maximize profits. As you might know, at one point ghash.io reached +50% hashrate, and miners didn't care about it enough to switch to a +different pool. + +2. Back in 2012, we didn't have multipools. Multipools automatically +switches between mining different alt-chains to maximize miners' profits. +Miners who use multipools do not care how their hashrate is used as long as +they profit off it. +Particularly, check https://nicehash.com/ -- you can easily buy hashrate to +attack a smaller alt-coin, for example. + +If the halving will result in a significant hashrate drop (and we did +observe hashrate drop in 2012, although it wasn't that big), it might be +possible to buy enough hashpower to attack Bitcoin. + +--047d7b2e468a7c3802050644a842 +Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 +Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable + +<div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><br>= +<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-= +left-width:1px;border-left-color:rgb(204,204,204);border-left-style:solid;p= +adding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr">We had a halving, and it was a non-event.= +<div>Is there some reason to believe next time will be different?</div></di= +v></blockquote><div><br></div><div>Yes.</div><div><br></div><div>When the m= +arket is rapidly growing, margins can be relatively high because of limited= + amounts of capital being invested, or introduction of more efficient techn= +ologies.</div><div><br></div><div>However, we should expect market to becom= +e more mature with time, and a mature market will result in lower margins.<= +/div><div>The halving can do much more damage when margins are relatively s= +mall.</div><div><br></div><div>Besides that, there is a difference in ecosy= +stem maturity:</div><div><br></div><div>1. Back in 2012, miners weren't= + so focused on profits, as Bitcoin was highly experimental: some were minin= +g for the hell of it (it was a novelty thing back then), others wanted to s= +ecure the network, others did it because it was hard to obtain bitcoins by = +other means. But now miners are mostly profit-motivated: they buy expensive= + dedicated mining equipment and want to maximize profits. As you might know= +, at one point <a href=3D"http://ghash.io">ghash.io</a> reached 50% hashrat= +e, and miners didn't care about it enough to switch to a different pool= +.</div><div><br></div><div>2. Back in 2012, we didn't have multipools. = +Multipools automatically switches between mining different alt-chains to ma= +ximize miners' profits. Miners who use multipools do not care how their= + hashrate is used as long as they profit off it.</div><div>Particularly, ch= +eck=C2=A0<a href=3D"https://nicehash.com/">https://nicehash.com/</a> -- you= + can easily buy hashrate to attack a smaller alt-coin, for example.</div><d= +iv><br></div><div>If the halving will result in a significant hashrate drop= + (and we did observe hashrate drop in 2012, although it wasn't that big= +), it might be possible to buy enough hashpower to attack Bitcoin.</div><di= +v><br></div></div></div></div> + +--047d7b2e468a7c3802050644a842-- + + |