From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Fri Dec 10 1999 - 12:04:10 MST
With respect, the Futurists such as Marvin Centron, and the late Herman Kahn
did a so-so job in their forecasts. The best info I have ever read comes
from the late, Princeton Physicist, Gerard O'neil (remember O'neil
cylanders?) who stated "Remember, scientists tend to over-estimate the impact
breakthroughs, and tend to underestimate the impact of straight foward,
advances in a field".
> Those people in the past we know of that did get
> it right may not have been such flukes; maybe they just put enough effort
> into the topic to get results. And this makes me more optimistic that,
with
> some effort, we can in fact now see the outlines of our future. Maybe
> futurism isn't as hard as past reviews of Sunday-supplement futurism makes
> it seem.
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