From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Sat Nov 27 1999 - 17:19:28 MST
"D.den Otter" wrote:
>
> No, no, NO!
Join us, Spike... don't be afraid...
> For god's sake man, trust your instincts
> on this one. If an AI singularity comes first, and the
> AI *is* fully rational, there is a *major* chance that it
> will kill us all. I'm pretty sure it's 99.something %
Let's apply the Bayesian Probability Theorem. If, speaking about an
event on which there is great controversy and no access to immediate
evidence, Human A says vis theory is 70% likely to be right and Human B
says vis theory is 99% likely to be right, which one is more likely to
be totally wrong?
Trust me: I don't think I'm infallible.
> If nanotech comes first, on the other hand, we *will*
> have a fighting chance, certainly if we start planning
> a space program (as mentioned in the "SPACE:
> How hard IS it to get off Earth?" thread)
> and related projects (see my Nov. 14 post in the
> above thread for some suggestions) ASAP.
Maybe. But if humanity survives nanotech, sooner or later it'll still
come face-to-face with a greater-than-human intelligence. As you admit.
> [Wacky rant on "why subjective morality is the objective truth" deleted.]
>
> And yes, there is a "better way", and it's called
> synchronized uploading.
I wouldn't trust den Otter on this one, Spike. Long before he started
talking about "synchronized uploading" he believed that only one Power
could survive, and he plans to be it. He'll take your money, and while
you're waiting for your journey into the promised land, he'll jump into
the "experimental prototype hardware" and leave you suckers to burn.
--
sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
http://pobox.com/~sentience/tmol-faq/meaningoflife.html
Running on BeOS Typing in Dvorak Programming with Patterns
Voting for Libertarians Heading for Singularity There Is A Better Way
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