Re: more desperate self-glorification....

From: Amara Graps (Amara.Graps@mpi-hd.mpg.de)
Date: Thu Nov 25 1999 - 05:52:21 MST

Eric Watt Forste (arkuat@idiom.com) Wed, 24 Nov 1999 writes:

>We simply do not yet know how improbable the spontaneous origin of
>self-reproducing molecules is. Perhaps it is extraordinarily
>improbable. Perhaps not. Given all the actual evidence we have at the
>moment, we can say that it has happened at least once in Universe to
>date. I don't see any basis there for making any estimates of
>probability or improbability. I haven't studied Bayesian techniques
>very much yet, but you certainly can't tackle this one with
>resampling.

When I was gathering up Bayes references for astronomy, last year, I
found the following reference on the NASA ADS abstracts. I've not gone to
the library and dug it up yet, but it looks interesting.

Amara

P.S. You're welcome for that previous information.

http://ads.springer.de/cgi-bin/nph-bib_query?bibcode=1984QJRAS..25..435W&db_key=AST&nosetcookie=1&high=28182àY

 Title:

       BAYES' THEOREM AND THE REAL SETI EQUATION
 Authors:

        WILSON, T.L.
 Journal:

        ROYAL ASTRON. SOC. QUART. JRN. V.25, NO.4/DEC, P.435, 1984
 Publication Date:

        12/1984
 Origin:

         KNUDSEN
 Bibliographic Code:

         1984QJRAS..25..435W

(Unfortunately the online reference gives on abstract.) 

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Amara Graps               | Max-Planck-Institut fuer Kernphysik
Interplanetary Dust Group | Saupfercheckweg 1   
+49-6221-516-543          | 69117 Heidelberg, GERMANY
Amara.Graps@mpi-hd.mpg.de * http://galileo.mpi-hd.mpg.de/~graps  
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