From: Billy Brown (bbrown@transcient.com)
Date: Thu Nov 04 1999 - 12:16:10 MST
I think I've spotted a trend here.
When I do this kind of theorizing I start with a lifeless universe, and try
to work forward to a theory that explains the present without as few
unsupported assumptions as possible. I see that there is no particularly
convincing evidence that there is anyone out there, so I think "well, there
must not be anyone out there". When some SETI enthusiast brings up the
Drake equation I merely note that a list of unknowns does not constitute
evidence - we know essentially nothing about how easy it is for intelligent
life to evolve, and we therefore can not expect to predict anything from
such an analysis.
Robert, OTOH, seems to start by presuming that the universe must be filled
with sentient life. He then works backwards from this point to construct
ways of reconciling this assumption with the fact that we see no evidence of
intelligent life. He searches the universe of possible SI behaviors for
some set, however implausible, that might give that result, and then treats
that set of assumptions as if it were the simplest possible explanation for
observed facts.
This leads to some remarkably pointless debates. I note that some
particular point requires you to make a whole raft of assumptions about the
nature of SI civilizations, and ask for evidence that these assumptions are
correct. Robert, taking the existence of said civilization for granted,
replies that it is the simplest explanation for the observed universe and
therefore *I* should have to provide evidence that they are wrong. We can
go around like this forever and never get anywhere.
So, why don't we start at the beginning. I look around our corner of the
universe, and see that I can explain all of my observations quite well
without invoking extraterrestrial intelligence. Why, then, should I add in
the complicating assumption that there must be SIs out there somewhere?
Billy Brown, MCSE+I
bbrown@transcient.com
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:05:42 MST