From: Rob Harris Cen-IT (Rob.Harris@bournemouth.gov.uk)
Date: Thu Jul 15 1999 - 04:23:39 MDT
> ----------
> From: bradbury@aeiveos.com[SMTP:bradbury@aeiveos.com]
> Reply To: extropians@extropy.com
> Sent: 12 July 1999 16:37
> To: extropians@extropy.com
> Subject: Development of Tech. Civs. (was RE: SETSIs)
>
> > Rob Harris Cen-IT <Rob.Harris@bournemouth.gov.uk> wrote:
> >
> > > > Now, it would appear that the development time for a technological
> > > > civilization from the pre-radio stage to the post-singularity stage
> > > > is ~100 years on a planet similar to ours.
> > >
> > Really? Which Sci-Fi book did that come from? It sure as hell has
> nothing to
> > do with reality!
> >
>
> That's my best estimate.
>
> The first radio transmission was March 27, 1899.
> My best guess-estimate for the singularity would be circa 2020.
> I would be very surprised if we hit it before 2010 or after 2040.
>
> So within a factor of 2 I'm accurate (and since for the numbers
> I usually deal with are in the ranges of 10^12 - 10^40, 2 seems
> really small :-)).
>
> You can quibble with me on this but I think I'm on pretty solid
> ground. Best predictions for the microelectronics industry hitting
> the gate oxide thickness limit of 5 atoms is 2012. The semiconductor
> industry is $200 billion+, R&D is probably $20 billion+. The human
> genome is done by 2001, mouse by 2002, by ~2010 the combined R&D
> budgets of the NIH and Big Pharma will be around $30 billion+.
> The Microelectronics & Biotech industries are working top-down
> towards nanotechnologies.
>
> The U.S. Government is bumping "nanotechnology" funding to
> $500 million next year. And while most of it is not in
> "molecular nanotechnology" the trend is in that direction.
>
> So it is fairly safe to say that after 2010, the annual budget
> for nanotechnology research should be in the $billions.
> That should get us over the nanoassembler hurdle.
>
> The microelectronics industry also produces brain-op desktop
> computers by around 2010. I don't want to get into an AI
> discussion here, but if you get AI *or* significant
> enhancement of human engineering productivity, then
> I believe the molecular design (and simulation) problems
> should fall.
>
> molecular designs + nanoassembler == singularity in my book.
>
> Other civilizations may be slower, some might be faster.
> My guess is that the rate of development depends a lot
> on population and the productivity allowed by the environment
> (e.g. we would probably be less productive in an ice age,
> because survival would require more effort).
>
> Robert
>
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