From: Lyle Burkhead (lybrhed@earthlink.net)
Date: Sun Apr 18 1999 - 12:46:12 MDT
Mitchell Porter writes,
> Let's define our terms here. When I talk about "grey goo",
> I am talking about microscopic, nonbiological, free-living replicators
> hardy enough and prolific enough to pose a threat to
> most life on Earth. Artificial life - out of control - worst-case
scenario.
> What is so fantastic about that?
The idea that life as it presently exists will be replaced by something
else is not, in itself, fantastic. However, --
1. What is fantastic is the image of goo spreading over the planet, eating
everything in its path. Microscopic life won't have an advantage over
large-scale life in the future any more than it does now. Hard life, like
natural life, will come in all sizes, from microbes to Godzilla, and all
forms, from algae to insects to mammals, plus other forms that have not yet
been thought of. The ecosystem of the future will be at least as complex
and diverse as the ecosystem of today. The world isn't going to be any
more gooey in the future than it is now.
2. The very idea of "nonbiological, free-living replicators" is absurd.
It is possible to have replicators that use different materials and have
different sources of energy than natural cells, but any free-living
organism that replicates will be "biological" in a general sense.
Hard life, like natural life, will be constrained by time, space, and
energy; there will still be such a thing as bioenergetics. Each species
will have its own niche. There will still be predators and prey, and there
will still be an ongoing arms race between predators and prey, as described
by Dawkins. There will still be symbiotic relationships and parasitic
relationships between species. In other words the general form of biology
will remain the same. The essential difference will be that organisms will
be able to change themselves, like corporations do, instead of depending on
the blind process of natural selection.
3. Finally, the other fantastic thing about the grey goo scenario is that
it is all supposed to happen overnight. I wish it were that easy to design
new cells. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out how to redesign my
own cells. It's a daunting task, and I think it will take decades just to
make the first steps. Replicators are complex, and that complexity isn't
going to go away.
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