From: Forrest Bishop (forrestb@ix.netcom.com)
Date: Tue Apr 13 1999 - 01:12:03 MDT
<<From: GBurch1@aol.com
Date: Sat, 10 Apr 1999 12:14:57 EDT
Subject: Re: Mars: Go now, or wait?
In a message dated 99-04-01 01:56:39 EST, spike66@ibm.net (Spike Jones)
wrote:
> 1. Who believes we should wait for nanotech to start a Mars colony?>>
Not I.
> 2. Who believes we should wait for bio-suspension?
Negative- it is not at all necessary.
> 3. Who believes the point is to *have* an exocolony before these
> other things come online?
It would be a smart thing.
> 4. Who believes we have the technology now and should start now,
> even if it requires great discomfort and sacrifice on the part of
> the first colonist(s)?
We have the tech but not the working knowledge nor a viable business
plan, nor
economic launch capabilities. Fortunately, these things are all being
addressed
now, after a thirty-year hiatus.
For an example of a ludicrous plan, see the MIT student proposal titled
"Think Mars"
http://web.mit.edu/jts/www/thinkmars.html
It appears to be more of an indoctrination into the ways of the
areospace culture than
an actual, serious study.
As part of my proposal, tentativly titled "Venture Mars", I have been
asking people
"Would you be willing to risk dying on Mars in exchange for the
opportunity?", or
"Would you die for Mars?"
I am receiving very roughly a 50% positive response.
<<As a long-time space enthusiast
<http://users.aol.com/gburch1/space.html>, my
thinking about "Big Projects" in space development has undergone
significant
evolution over the years. Thirty years ago I certainly would have
pushed for
an early Apollo-style project for a manned Mars mission, and a
government-funded Mars base as soon thereafter as possible. Now I'm
very,
very opposed to such an idea, because I'm sure it would do more harm
than
good, in the long run.>>
I concur- just as the Space Shuttle has set us back a quarter century,
so too
would yet another government-sponsored, corporate welfare program.
Indeed,
the space station (ISS, Alpha, Freedom, or whatever it's being called
today),
by sucking up crucial resourses for ill-defined goals, is repeating the
ongoing shuttle
disaster. Just the cash blown on studies over the last 20 years could
have purchased
and launched a fleet of heavy-lift vehicles, large enough and cheap
enough to
put up several stations with relaxed design constraints.
<<The transhumanist vision has been key in transforming my feelings
about space
development in one way more than any other: I now feel that patience is
a
PERSONAL virtue in my desire to reach the stars. Every year the
technology
for space development gets better and better and the cost for achieving
any
particular goal off-earth drops more and more. If I have a realistic
expectation of a significantly lengthened life span, then it makes sense
to
be patient. Now, does this mean that I've postponed my expectations
until
after some magical nanotechnology breakthrough? No. Instead, I see a
positive feedback with technologies that don't require such a complete
breakthrough that puts the solar system into humanity's grasp in a
realistic
time-frame. >>
Again, it's not a question of the technology, but of the economics. If a
resourse
were discovered on Mars that would fetch $10^9/kg (dilithium crystals or
whatever),
how long do you think it would take to establish a mining colony?
<<"Early nanotech", meaning the kinds of material science we can expect
without
a full-blown Drextech assembler within the next 20-30 years, coupled
with a
maturing MEMs technology, should lower the strength-to-weight ratio of
spacecraft >>
Although strength-to-weight is a crucial parameter in some aerospace
applications,
I prefer to think in terms of "synergistic-capability-per-dollar" for
most hardware.
Also, a diamondoid ("Drextech") assembler is totally unnecessary for
full-blown,
strong nanotech.
<<so significantly before 2030 that we can realistically expect
major advances in near-earth economic development in that time frame.
Establishing a large base on Luna and a largely self-sufficient small
Mars
colony by 2040 or so >>
I think it will be much sooner than this, perhaps even within 15 years.
-- Forrest Bishop Manager, Interworld Productions, LLC Chairman, Institute of Atomic-Scale Engineering http://www.speakeasy.org/~forrestb
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