Re: META: would prefer much less political debating

From: Damien Broderick (damien@ariel.ucs.unimelb.edu.au)
Date: Sun Dec 13 1998 - 04:40:42 MST

Next message: EvMick@aol.com: "Re: The Education Function"
Previous message: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: Wilson/Extropian conflict?"
In reply to: Han Huang: "Re: META: would prefer much less political debating"
Next in thread: GBurch1@aol.com: "Re: META: would prefer much less political debating"
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

At 02:06 AM 12/12/98 -0500, Han Huang wrote:

>The chance you escape it for 2 year
>straight is 159/160 * 159/160, because we're assuming every year's
>risk is independent of the past. The chance you escape for 50 years
>is:
>
> 159
> --- to the 50th power = 0.7309 or 73%
> 160
>
> 100% - 73% = 27%.

Urk. I see, my bad. I really should refrain from posting comments before
I've put my brain in.

Thanks for your patience.

Damien Broderick

Next message: EvMick@aol.com: "Re: The Education Function"
Previous message: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky: "Re: Wilson/Extropian conflict?"
In reply to: Han Huang: "Re: META: would prefer much less political debating"
Next in thread: GBurch1@aol.com: "Re: META: would prefer much less political debating"
Messages sorted by: [ date ] [ thread ] [ subject ] [ author ] [ attachment ]

This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 14:49:58 MST