From: Lee Daniel Crocker (lee@piclab.com)
Date: Mon Aug 24 1998 - 18:01:15 MDT
In my earlier analysis of the Carter-Leslie Doomsday Argument,
I incorrectly stated that the Bayesian posterior probability
of a ball having been drawn from the first of N urns, given
that it was numbered "1" and that the N urns contain 1, 2,
... N balls, approached 0 as N approaches infinity. That's
not true: if my second shot at the calculations are correct,
the limit is in fact 1/3. This shoots down one of my
objections to the DA, namely that the sample set of potential
universes is too contrived. It does not affect my objection
to the self-selection flaw.
-- Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past, are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used for any purpose without permission, attribution, or notification."
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