From: Scott Badger (wbadger@psyberlink.net)
Date: Thu Apr 09 1998 - 23:12:16 MDT
Like most individuals, I don't know enough about programming to accurately
assess the claims of the doomsayers or the naysayers on this issue. As
alluded to by others in earlier posts, I suspect that we may be facing a
self-fulfilling prophecy process here. The public will become so worried
about a crash that they will cause the crash. The following may happen:
The Dow will probably continue to rise, with a few minor corrections. By the
year 2000 it may be at 12,000 or higher. But the higher it goes, the more
skittish and vigilant investors will become for a sign that a crash is
around the corner. The media, seeing it as a huge story, will gradually
create more and more uncertainty about how big a problem the Y2K bug will
be. Uncertainty keeps the viewers tuned in for more information.
Eventually, it will become obvious to investors that they would be fools to
risk the substantial profits they've made on their investments on some
computer glitch. With so much riding on it, the only sensible thing to do
would be to "get liquid" just long enough to be sure that nothing really bad
is going to happen. After the danger (and the huge profit-taking) is over
(Jan 2?), investors will rush back in to grab all the under-priced stocks.
Fortunes will definitely be made and lost...unless the doomsayers are right,
in which case fortunes will only be lost. I would like to hear some more
discussion about how we can all get rich off of this.
Scott Badger
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