From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Fri Sep 26 1997 - 08:58:18 MDT
"Mikael Johansson" <mikael_list@usa.net> writes:
> If I understand the thread correctly, the Technology Advancement mapped on
> x-axis, and the time on y, woud look like an s lying down, with a stretch
> near the x-axis to negative infinity, then somewhere an exponential rise,
> slowly breaking out of the rise, and ending up in another paralell to the
> x-axis line, at the limit of technology. I might have caught it wrong,
> Anders and Wei Dai, if so, please correct me,
It is a good picture you have of it. You can describe the sigmoid with
(say) 1+tanh(t) or something similar. Locally it can look exponential
just before the inflexion point.
Note that this model says that there is a singular moment, the inflexion
point, but does not say how steep the curve is there. It can be a
gentle slope, or a wild near-vertical.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
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