From: Dan Clemmensen (Dan@Clemmensen.ShireNet.com)
Date: Tue Aug 26 1997 - 16:38:21 MDT
Anders Sandberg wrote:
>
> Dan@Clemmensen.ShireNet.com (Dan Clemmensen):
[SNIP: Let's discuss minimizing disruptions prior to Singularity]
>
> How well do people in general adapt to change, and how much do they
> like it? Are there basic traits of flexibility? Can flexibility be
> nurtured by culture or amplified artificially?
>
> In the future scenarios developed by Aleph, [...]
Are these available on the Web?
> I noticed recently that
> catastrophe theory could be applied to society. Essentially the
> catastrophe surface was controlled by the parameters of how much
> society tried to control new technology (social impact statements vs.
> invent whatever you like) and how well it adapted to new technology
[SNIP]
I think the best historical model is Japan, but the French
and Russian revolutions seem to follow this model also.
> How will economy change in the time up to the singularity? Can today's
> corporations adapt fast enough, or will the break up?
>
Corporate adaptivity is an enormous problem. If corporations
cannot adapt quickly enough, the economy could fail
catastrophically. However, I believe that the financial system
is even more vulnerable to rapid change, and that most individual
humans are more vulnerable still. In particular, until quite
recently, an individual who learned his or her parent's skills
could find a job. Today, I would be unemployable if my skill set
was limited to the skills I had ten years ago. Thus, historical
analogy is of limited usefulness here.
If there is any interest in this subject, perhaps we could set
up an outline and decide what subtopics should be investigated.
Alternatively, we can just free-flow as we usually do, but in
about a week we can summarize and then fill in the gaps.
individual humans. for most
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