From: James Rogers (jamesr@best.com)
Date: Thu May 22 1997 - 13:27:37 MDT
At 10:29 AM 5/22/97 -0700, you wrote:
>The thing I keep hearing is that the stock market's performance over the
>last 10 years or so has been unusually good compared to historical
>averages. The implication is that stocks would be expected to underperform
>over the next decade, either returning to their average growth rates
>or possibly even falling lower to compensate for the recent spurt. If
>this is right, then the stock market, particularly the index averages,
>may not be the place to be, unless your time horizon is very far out
>(20-40 years).
The long term historical average for the major indices is 10% < return <
11% depending on the index. The indices are expected to perform very
poorly in 5+/-2 years for a term of 5-10 years. As I stated previously,
the short-term growth of the indices is due in part to a demographic shift
which is pumping a lot more money into the economy than would normally
occur. Index funds will probably be good investments for about two years
or so. After that I would consider investing in non-tracking funds.
-James Rogers
jamesr@best.com
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