From: Michael Lorrey (retroman@tpk.net)
Date: Wed Apr 09 1997 - 17:09:53 MDT
Robin Hanson wrote:
>
> I wrote:
> > if, for example, they announce their
> > interest in being a movie star, princess, professional basketball
> > player, or astronaut, you probably want to make it clear these are
> > long shots.
>
> GeoffCobb@aol.com responded:
> >I dare to think that Extropians have gone beyond this kind of limit teaching.
> >This very meme is what I encounter expicitly when i speak of Extropy.
> >I was really surprised to see it on this list. Dynamic Optimism does indeed
> > mean getting a REALISTIC view, so astronaut or athlete or artist would not
> >be an easy task, I need to tell a child it entail lots of work; a true
> >talent; perserverence of great magnitude... but to call it a 'long shot' is
> >to *discourage* them from ever trying! ...dynamic pessimism?? Its a kindly
> >meme parents often use to protect their kids from failing -and terrifying to
> >me, yikes!
>
> Are you claiming that these are not in fact long shots, or that one
> should hide such facts from children for fear of discouraging them? I
> have no problem with people taking long shots, if they know that's
> what they are doing.
>
With respect to personal achievement, Robin, you should know that the
chances one has of making it to the goal are mostly affected by
preparation and perseverance. While going for it may be a long shot for
those who only try, those who follow Yoda and live by "There is no try,
do or do not." have good chances. 90% of the weeding process in life is
a matter of the individual quitting at one point or another, even if
only mentally at one crucial juncture. WHile it is true that some start
off with worse odds than others, those who never try because of the
supposed "odds" never even show up for the race.
--
TANSTAAFL!!!
Michael Lorrey
------------------------------------------------------------
mailto:retroman@tpk.net Inventor of the Lorrey Drive
Agent Lorrey@ThePentagon.com
Silo_1013@ThePentagon.com http://www.tpk.net/~retroman/
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------------------------------------------------------------
#!/usr/local/bin/perl-0777---export-a-crypto-system-sig-RC4-3-lines-PERL
@k=unpack('C*',pack('H*',shift));for(@t=@s=0..255){$y=($k[$_%@k]+$s[$x=$_
]+$y)%256;&S}$x=$y=0;for(unpack('C*',<>)){$x++;$y=($s[$x%=256]+$y)%256;
&S;print pack(C,$_^=$s[($s[$x]+$s[$y])%256])}sub S{@s[$x,$y]=@s[$y,$x]}
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