POLITICS: Avoiding nuclear anarchy

From: N.BOSTROM@lse.ac.uk
Date: Mon Jan 06 1997 - 08:18:56 MST


          In the recent book "Avoiding nuclear anarchy", a group of
          Harvard researches argues that the danger of nuclear
          prolifieration is *the* greatest threat to american national
          security. Especially worrisome is the risk of leakage of
          weapon grade plutonium and uranium, as well as lower grade
          fuel, nuclear related technology and nuclear scientists from
          the former Sovjet Union. The authors claim that though the
          american government has made some attempts to cooperate with
          the Russians to contain this threat, the efforts have not
          been proportionate to the urgency of the situation.
          
          Serious as this may be though, the risk of nuclear leakage
          from the ex-Sovjet is only a minor part of the picture of
          dangers that lay ahead of us. There are other sources for
          nuclear proliferation, there is the risk of proliferation of
          biological and chemical weapons, and there are even greater
          risks in some potential new technology such as
          nanotechnology.
          
          None of this is news, but I bring it up for two reasons. The
          firt reason is that I think that we extropians and
          transhumanists do not consider the risks seriously enough.
          We usually acknowledge their existence, but are not
          generally too worried about them and we do not spend a great
          portion of our time thinking about what we could do about
          them. The explanation is probably that it is *boring*. No
          one wants to be the one who complaints, urges restraint and
          focuses on the negative aspects of things. This is an
          explanation but not an excuse; it would be great if we could
          become more responsible.
          
          Another explanation -and this brings me to the second point
          I want to make- is that many of these problems seem to call
          for solutions that clash with the libertarian doctrine held
          by many on this list. At least at first sight, it seems that
          a reformed and strengthened United Nation would be the best
          suited institution to supervise the use of very dangerous
          technologies. I know the mere mention of the UN probably
          causes some people here to want to throw up. The alternative
          would perhaps be a world where USA plays the international
          big brother role, but this raises many problems of moral
          authority, financing etc. etc. Perhaps it is therefore worth
          considering an institution like the UN in whose decision
          making processes USA and other nations are allowed to play a
          part in the that are in some proportion to their real power.
          If this were to be effective, the UN would of course have to
          have the mandate to make and enforce some laws that would
          prevent any nations, organisations and individuals from
          acquiring weapons of mass distruction or any technologies
          with dangers greater than the group in question could be
          entrusted to handle.
          
          This would mean that some sacrifice of individual freedom
          and national souveigninty would have to be made. But that
          would be a prise worth paying if it would increase the
          chance that mankind succeeds in avoiding putting an end to
          civilization or even its existence as a species. Since we
          have the vision of how fantastic the world could be if the
          forces of possible technologies were released and employed
          wisely, we should also have the will to do what it takes to
          prevent things from going tragically wrong, even if this
          means adding new principles to our thinking that
          circumscribe the applicability of some of our most favoured
          dogmas.
          
          Do you think there is something in this?
          
          
          Nicholas Bostrom n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk



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