From: Eliezer Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Wed Dec 11 1996 - 13:24:59 MST
> The doomsday argument says it should be much nearer to 1/6 than to
> 1/36. Yet if you don't know how many people are in the room with you,
> I think it would have to be nearer to 1/36, the opposite bias! I
> think you do get the bias Leslie expects, however, if you can see how
> many people are in the room with you. (Anyone want to work through
> the details?)
Say WHAT? Your chance of winning is ((1/6 + 1/36) / 2) = 7/72 or around
9.7%. The number of people in the room has NOTHING to do with this any
more than the number of clouds in the sky, unless you're being assigned
to some post-hoc group.
--
sentience@pobox.com Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
http://tezcat.com/~eliezer/singularity.html
http://tezcat.com/~eliezer/algernon.html
Disclaimer: Unless otherwise specified, I'm not telling you
everything I think I know.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 14:35:53 MST