From: Ramez Naam (mez@apexnano.com)
Date: Mon Dec 02 2002 - 23:04:39 MST
From: spike66 [mailto:spike66@attbi.com]
> Global warming would help melt back some of that
> useless ice, create *more* land for animals
> to live on, *more* plant life for them to devour,
> warmer temperatures to support *more* life, not
> less.
Over the span of millions of years, this may be true.
Unfortunately rapid change in climate produces a short term (in
ecological time scales) profoundly negative effect on most life forms.
Why? Because most species can not quickly adapt to climate change.
Turning up the heat kills off the southern portions of a forest far
more quickly than it extends the range of the forest to the north. So
for some time you have a net negative impact on diversity and on the
size of that forest.
Indeed, this is an extremely simplistic example, because the effects
of global warming are not homogeneous over the face of the earth.
Some areas will go up in temperature, others will go down. Some
deserts will experience much higher precipitation and some wet areas
will experience prolonged droughts.
Frankly, in my own area (Seattle), I've enjoyed the effects of global
warming (more sunny days in the winter), but I realize that it comes
at a cost. For example, Seattle is experiencing a blight of
evergreen-devouring fungus that is encouraged by the unusually warm
winters we've had recently. From my back yard virtually every pine
tree I can see is now affected by the fungus and is as good as dead
(once you see the signs, you know the root system is all but gone).
These pines have an average age of several decades, so the damage done
is not exactly quick to undo. This is the kind of unforeseen
consequence global warming brings.
Another thing I haven't seen much emphasis on here is the uptick in
extreme weather over the last decade. Higher mean temperatures = more
energy in the atmosphere. That energy manifests itself as hurricanes,
monsoons, and other extreme weather. Global weather-related insurance
claims are up strongly over the last 15 years, even adjusting for
inflation AND global population growth.
Here in the US we can handle more extreme weather fairly well - we're
rich, not dense, and have lots of interior room. But in poor, high
density, coastal nations like Bangladesh, it's a death sentence for
hundreds of thousands of people. And it's really just getting
started.
All in all I think global warming is worth taking seriously and worth
devoting resources to abetting. It's not our most pressing
environmental problem (scarcity of fresh water likely gets that title)
but it's a very real phenomenon having a real and negative effect on
the world.
cheers,
mez
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