RE: design complexity of assemblers (was: Ramez Naam: redesigning children)

From: Ramez Naam (mez@apexnano.com)
Date: Mon Nov 25 2002 - 18:28:30 MST


From: Avatar Polymorph [mailto:avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com]
> You cannot predict future change in the fashion you are doing.

Oh but I can! *laugh* Seriously, I agree - predicting the future is
incredibly difficult and incredibly prone to error. I don't claim to
have any kind of special knowledge of what's going to happen, I'm just
pointing out factors that I think about that I haven't seen widely
discussed by others.

In the end, even though we're likely to be quite wrong in predicting
the future, we engage in it anyway. You predict assemblers by 2020.
I predict it'll be much farther away. Likely we're both wrong and the
future will be different than either of us conceives.



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