From: Avatar Polymorph (avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com)
Date: Mon Nov 25 2002 - 00:59:37 MST
Dear Mez
Yes you are right about altering embryos now. Yes you are correct about the
limited applications for short term genetic therapies at this stage.
However, also bear in mind the time taken for children to grow.
Most arguments about imminent timeframes for Drexlerian self-reproducing
nanotech relate to computing power. Noticeably, thinkers such as Drexler,
Tipler and Moravec tend to have convergencies in their figures because of
this.
Singularitarian circles have accepted the notion of a rise in "base level
real knowledge of the sub-structure of the universe" which appear more and
more like a wall if viewed on larger and larger scales (i.e. if you zoom
back from 100 years before now to 10,000 years before now and 100,000 years
before now)[See for example Damien Broderick's The Spike.] . This wall
appears visually to start about 1870 and if extrapolated mathematically (say
based upon knowledge of universal mass, i.e. nodes of its rough real
explanation) appears to have a giant quick glob about 2025 followed by a
deceleration to a ceiling of knowledge for substructure in a century and a
half. This notion ties in with Moore's law somewhat.
If there is no extreme lifespan extension and body control (to the point of
controlling hair colour and having young skin and the beginnings of control
of skeletal structure) by 2015 then you will know the above is seriously off
course. However, bear in mind most of the aforementioned control will occur
between 2012 and 2015. Similarly, the two years prior to the big increase in
generic substructure knowledge (physics and cosmology) are when such will
become too obvious to ignore (i.e. in 2023 and 2024 if the year is 2025 for
example).
It is probably that there are actually various extremely complex rise and
plateau effects WITHIN the apparent "rock-face" of the Singularity and its
overall rise since 1870.
As regards complexity, it is true that it is wide and varied and somewhat
unpredictable. For example, there may be more possible protein structures
than atoms in the universe. This can only be an interesting thing. However,
in our everyday lives we are currently only concerned with a small subset of
complexity.
A similar argument is this: while it takes a decade to pay off research in a
major drug/proteomic/etc. therapy and allow profits, production may be cheap
after that point. If there are only a hundred diseases outside of heart
attacks/strokes/cancers, then it may be that by investing the equivalent of
two or three Trident missile systems in disease we can conquer RELEVANT
complexity in this particular area... and do so for a considerable period of
time with only minor adjustments.
Or again: out of all possible software design, the design for 5 basic cars
and trucks can be placed on-line in a few years and be available for
billenia.
I know it sounds a bit abstruse, but it remains true.
Best,
Towards Ascension
Avatar Polymorph
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