From: Avatar Polymorph (avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com)
Date: Sat Sep 28 2002 - 00:02:38 MDT
Charles Hixson wrote:
"The problem is that you are thinking that the pace of technological growth
has slowed. I don't see anything to justify this. It's true that the
speculators are no longer causing the stock market to rise to unrealiztic
values. (Now it's unreasonably depressed, instead.) But the number of
articles I read about new and inovative theories and devices continues to
increase. I think it may not be visible from month to month. (This should
soon peak, as people get tired of reading the reports. That probably won't
change the underlying actual truth.)"
Absolutely.
"This last week I read that someone had gotten mice to turn 80% of their
hair a flourescent green via a jellyfish gene. What's new is that the mice
were born normal, and had their genes changed via an adenovirus after they
were born. Speculation ensues about delivery of spot coding, so that, to
pick a silly example, someone could be given polkadot hair with zebra
stripes, but as a genetic change (i.e., normal hair development) rather than
via chemical dyes."
I had a clipping on this from several years ago so it's been done a while
ago. Someone told me allegedly that chickens with four legs have been made
via genemip (urban myth?). Clearly at some point we are going to have to
consider whether mammals for example are "half-way" conscious and should be
boosted or not, but this will occur after assemblers have defragged the food
chain and our ethical options at physical levels are crystallizing more
clearly in the social world. After all, our first problem is how to achieve
a smooth transition into the domain of the eternal [initially several
centuries projected, then very quickly indefinitely projected] 18 year old
(if that's your bag) in about 13 years. Assemblers follow this period. The
Singularity follows this.
"The thing that may mislead you is that technical development tends to
spiral. Changes in one area eventually slow, but those changes have opened
opportunities in another area (e.g., nano-tech and molecular biology depend
on the recent surge in electronic microtech)."
Absolutley.
"People frequently guess incorrectly about where the changes are going to
lead. And economic factors play a big part. I still use dial-up rather
than broadband, because broadband it too expensive for what worth it brings
me. And this is an intentional choice (with and unintentional effect) on
the part of the phone company (ilecs). When I do decide to connect via
broadband, it's likely to be wireless, not because I like that technology,
but because the phone company has prevented the people who offer the
services that I want to use from competing on "their turf", i.e. land line
based communication. This says nothing about the rate of technological
change, but it says a lot about the ways in which those changes can be
twisted to produce contra-intuitive results."
Absolutely. We see the phenomena of convergence as you described between
techs and also bypass. Economic factors slow bypass in some respects
especially in the era of mass production. Follow assemblers and software
enabling individualistic, production-on-demand distribution phenomena should
be limited to minerals and some specialized physical requirements - even
much of the power grid will be distributed via solar power via nanomaterial
on road surfaces. Other power sources flowing from orbital systems and space
and solar power in space and geothermal etc. (leaving fusion aside for the
moment) will still require distribution vectors which may limit choice. Also
social choice ought in theory to become more distributed and individualistic
but this may depend on the degree of "future shock" as we pass through the
Singularity and then the degree of adjustment of statis shock in the
immediate post-Singularity situation.
Avatar Polymorph
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