From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Tue Jun 18 2002 - 11:42:36 MDT
On Tuesday, June 18, 2002, at 12:06 am, Brian Atkins wrote:
> You're missing my point, which is that something as "super-smart" and
> "super-
> fast" as you were talking about should be able to make the VR realistic
> enough (hence my use of the word "emulate") to completely do any needed
> testing in that arena.
No, I got your point exactly. I simply disagree with it. That doesn't
mean I understand it. You think that emulations can get so good that we
don't need to verify our results. I say, no matter how good your
emulation gets, it is still "unverified" until it is observed the real
world. It may have a high probability of working the same in the real
world as it does in your emulation, but that probability is not 100%.
As Anders pointed out in another posting, emulations do not negate the
need for real-world investigation. Emulations do what we say. When you
can simulate the earth so completely that you predict coin flips, die
rolls, and individual raindrops, then I might consider testing to be
unnecessary. But I don't think we can accurately measure every atom in
the universe. Again, the real-world challenge will slow down the
emulation. If we don't measure ever atom, then your emulation only
shows what can happen, but not what will happen.
> Or do you believe uploading is impossible? The
> same level of emulation capabilities are required in either case- if it
> can do one it can do the other it would seem?
I don't see the connection here. I do believe that uploading will
eventually be possible. All we have to do is simulate reality.
However, simulating something is totally different from predicting
reality. I can simulate dice on a PC, but predicting die rolls is a lot
more difficult. I can simulate atomic and subatomic particles, but
predicting their exact locations and momentums is a lot more difficult.
Perfect prediction at the atomic level may be theoretically impossible.
Even with perfect simulations, I don't expect it to parallel the real
universe forever without diverging. It must be kept in synch with
real-world observations and verification.
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> Principal Security Consultant <www.Newstaff.com>
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