From: CurtAdams@aol.com
Date: Fri May 10 2002 - 13:05:26 MDT
In a message dated 5/10/02 11:00:15, hal@finney.org writes:
>Robin Hanson earlier pointed to a successful model which makes different
>predictions:
>> Given the initial age distribution, this steady exponential decline in
>> age-specific rates produced a rapid decline in life expectancy in the
>> early part of this century, and a slower decline in the later part. But
>> the fundamental trend has remained amazingly steady.
Actually, the two models aren't too different. Since mortality increases
exponentially with age, an exponential decrease in age-specific mortality
produces roughly linear increases in life expectancy once mortality in
youth gets low. If mortality in youth is high, you get a larger increase
in life expectancy, which is what happened in the 19th and early 20th
centuries. Now it'll pretty much be linear.
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