From: Mike Lorrey (mlorrey@datamann.com)
Date: Mon Apr 29 2002 - 18:57:48 MDT
Hal Finney wrote:
>
> Add to that the fact that we have to wait for perhaps 20 years for the
> engineered baby to grow to young adulthood before we can know the full
> impact of the genetic change. This means that dramatic changes can only
> occur on the scale of decades to centuries.
Not true. Genetic therapy of grown individuals is currently ongoing in
europe, with an experiment in France successfully altering the genomes
of patients stem and germ line cells. These patients suffered from the
"Bubble Boy" syndrome. Furthermore, cloning technology requires stem
cells from the cloned embryos of their adult patient to most effectively
grow replacement organs. These technologies, outlawed today, will start
impacting the health of millions of people within a few years.
Genetic therapies to boost IQ of children, and even adults, could be
developed within several years and implemented quickly thereafter. Note
that boosting human IQ will result in the Moore's Law doubling curve
contracting as the individuals developing computers get smarter.
>
> Computer enhancements on the other hand can in principle remain on the
> Moore's Law curve straight through to the nanotech era around 2020.
> As the machines become more powerful we can also expect progress in
> applying them to important problems. With full nanotech we can have
> high levels of AI and direct brain computer interfaces for effective
> intelligence expansion.
>
> All these changes seem likely to occur long before we could see
> significant changes to the human genome, enough to create "posthumans",
> which I would think will take several human generations.
Yes, but the laws are being written TODAY which will decide if any of
this will be allowed to take place. We are decades from full AI and full
posthumans, ONLY if laws do not get in the way. If they do, then don't
expect the singularity any time soon.
>
> Therefore I am not terribly concerned about the current neo luddite
> movement's goals of preserving the genetic purity of the human race.
You have your head in the sand. This is just the sort of attitude I've
been ranting about.
> I agree that it is a sad and misguided effort and that it will hurt people
> by keeping them from helpful medical interventions which can heal illness,
> improve fertility and give children the best possible start in life.
> But I don't see the technology of human genetic engineering as being
> the primary driver for achieving spectacular human enhancements over the
> next century. For that I think we will rely more on machine interfaces.
What technologies develop will be determined specifically by what the
law allows. From the current fear of technology that is driving current
luddite law, it doesn't matter WHAT technology eventually would get us
there, as soon as one technology shows promise of giving us that, the
luddites will move to outlaw it. The longer this goes on, the easier it
becomes for them to achieve. We have to start now in a big way to combat
them from the start.
>
> Of course, the luddites are probably no happier about someone wiring
> their brain into a computer than they are with someone selectively
> giving birth to a genius child. So there is still a battle to be fought.
> I just don't think this particular one is that important, other than as a
> skirmish which will help establish the initial battle lines and alliances.
No, the ultimate result will be determined by what happens NOW. Read
your Sun Tsu (I can guarantee you that the luddites have). He says that
the easiest victory is already won before an arrow is shot.
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