From: jeff davis (jrd1415@yahoo.com)
Date: Tue Apr 02 2002 - 21:13:39 MST
Extropes,
--- spike66 <spike66@ATTBI.com> wrote:
> ...I predict
> that the lack of hyperlinking capability on paper
> text will cause that medium to become practically
> obsolete. Watch the book industry implode by 2012.
> I dont know how professional authors will copy
> protect their work. Lee Daniel, would you go into
> that as a means of making a living? Now?
I can't claim to have any sense of certainty about
this issue, but my ruminations follow this general
path. Consider the cost factors involved in a
conventional book: work of author, work of editor,
management and marketing work of publisher, cost of
printing, cost of storage and distribution, cost of
retailer for his store and staff. Add all these cost
factors together and you get the base cost at the
point of purchase. Then add the mark-up, and you get
the sale price. If there is thought to be sufficient
demand at that price for the publisher to give the
green light, then maybe you have a commercially viable
book/item.
For electronic publishing, materials costs, printing,
storage, and shipping costs, retail shelf space and
sales staff costs are gone. Costs would seem to be
reduced by a least an order of magnitude, while the
market expands by at least a couple of orders of
magnitude (certainly, the global penetration of the
internet has a ways to go yet before leveling off).
Under these conditions , a book which once sold for
$25 should now be able to generate the same gross
revenue for 2.5 cents, or ten times the revenue for 25
cents.
I got to thinking again, about the business model for
electronic publishing, when, some time back, Damien
posted the following, regarding the possible
electronic publishing of his work:
"Suppose I e-posted advertisements (somehow/somewhere)
that my latest novel can be downloaded free from one
given server, and asked for a $1 or less tip. Terrible
idea: I need to pay for server space, and the
inundation of hits from my zillion eager fans will
lock up the system and send them to Piers Anthony
paperbacks instead.
So what if, instead, I use a sort of benign pyramid
scheme:
I send Eliezer, Spike and Robert an attached e-copy of
the 85,000 word novel apiece (after politely inviting
and receiving their request for it).
Thereafter they can do what they wish with it, but I
ask nicely that if they enjoy the book they send me a
buck (by whatever appropriate means, maybe Paypal) AND
THAT THEY SEND A TEASER TO ANOTHER THREE FRIENDS who
they judge might care to read it."
END OF QUOTE
First, why bad-mouth electronic distribution by using
the term "pyramid scheme"? Don't be ashamed of
marketing. Marketing by an electronically (ie
internet) mediated distribution system is perfectly
legit. In fact, it's better than legit, because it's
new tech, exploiting the very purpose of tech, which
is, of course, higher productivity. Also multi-level
marketing is just SOP. You start out with one
author/editor and you (hopefully) end up with a
multitude of readers. A branching--ie
multi-level--distribution hierarchy is just a
self-evident connection mechanism.
As for marketing, conventional publishing presupposes
marketing costs--you pay the publisher for this very
major task. If you propose--as I infer from the
above--a more decentralized, reader-to-reader,
word-of-mouth method to accomplish the same
end,...hey, it's just another way to get the job done.
If it works, you're an innovative marketing genius.
If it doesn't, who cares. People try new things all
the time. Sometimes they work, sometimes they don't.
Anyway, I thought about Damien's above-proposed
method, and took it a bit further. Reconfigure the
person-to-person/reader-to-reader
marketing/distribution mechanism by PAYING THEM. That
is, pay a percentage to anyone who generates sales of
your work. Say, 40 percent for all first level
recommendations, 20 percent for second level
recommendations, ten percent for third level, and so
forth. If you have to market--and you do--don't shy
away from it and don't let irrational greed mislead
you into thinking that parsimonious is better than
generous. You want rational greed. You need the
right balance. The numbers here are just a
suggestion, what you're looking for is the formula
which gives you the maximum distribution (ie profit)
at the minimum cost. Good old capitalism. Use the
profit motive to set up a self-organizing, free-lance,
self-employment, self-empowerment, be-your-own-boss,
for-profit, intellectual property distribution system.
I will leave it to the software people to confirm
whether or no it is reasonable to hope for a software
system to keep track of all the persons and
percentages involved and collect and distribute the
proceeds accurately. It goes without saying that we
must have a zero-complexity, bedrock-reliable,
ubiquitous-to-the point-of-invisibility micro payment
system.
Finally, after sequestering the matter for a certain
period, that it might ponder its fate and role in the
universe in the sanctuary, such as it is, of my
unconscious, it reemerged with a solution to the
thoroughly odious $1 tip/beg-for-payment compensation
method.
Here's how it came to me.
I hate pop-up windows. Hate them. Wish serious harm
to the spawn of satan responsible for this
abomination.
When a pop-up window appears on my desktop, I dash my
cursor at light speed to the "kill the abomination"
x-mark in the upper right hand corner of the box.
Die! vile unbidden interruption, die! My response is
instantaneous, reflexive, passionate, hyperbolic.
Does anyone else feel this way?
Now suppose, just suppose, that the software which
makes a given piece of writing available for
consumption, presents the first, introductory portion,
in a pure and perfectly conventional free manner.
Same as now. Then, after you've settled in for a
pleasant read, a pop-up window appears and occludes
your view. It is a request for payment. But it has a
gimmick. To wit, the payment amount requested is
very, very low, a couple of pennies, a nickle, a dime.
Genuine chump change. And that as you sit there,
nose to nose with the pop-up window, the price goes
up. Two cents to three cents to four cents, etc. All
you have to do the get on with your reading is to
click a payment confirmation. The sooner you click,
the sooner you're back doing what you want, which is
to say reading without interruption. And how much
does it cost you? An insignificanly small amount.
Essentially you're paying tolls as you travel down the
information highway. The period between toll
assessments, and the amounts, can/should be
algorithmically determined so as to maximize profit.
Or the reader, having reached a decision on a bulk
purchase, can intrude in the automated assessment
process, and make the appropriate payment.
That's my take on the subject.
Best, Jeff Davis
"Everything's hard till you know how to do it."
Ray Charles
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