Random choice versus computer models.

From: steve (steve365@btinternet.com)
Date: Mon Mar 18 2002 - 07:03:06 MST


http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4373847,00.html

A story that's both amusing and interesting. It involves an experiment in
which a professional investment analyst, an astrologer and a five year old
girl were each given a notional sum to invest in the stockmarket. After a
year the five year old had a score of plus 5.8%, the astrologer had minus
6.2% and the analyst minus 46.2 (the stock market as a whole had minus 16%.

Quite apart from giving us the opportunity to laugh at the discomfiture of
the the analyst - schadenfreude is wonderful - this does raise yet again the
interesting question of prdicting the outcome of complex systems. Steve
Davies.



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