From: Brian D Williams (talon57@well.com)
Date: Wed Jan 02 2002 - 09:50:45 MST
>From: Geraint Rees <g.rees@fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk>
>I'm certainly not disagreeing with current US policy in
>Afghanistan. But previous US involvement in Afghanistan has
>certainly contributed to the current undesirable situation. This
>suggests that risk assessment was faulty, and suggests that at
>least as much attention should be paid to long term outcomes as
>short term gain. I think that this applies whatever the situation;
The problem is that divergent sequences are unpredictable as
Gregory Bateson taught me well. ( See "Mind and Nature")
Through the 20/20 of a retrospectroscope these events always look
avoidable. This does not mean we should not try to pay attention
and learn from our mistakes.
>we pay politicians & diplomats for such foresight;
I find the politicians and diplomats of the previous administration
completely lacking in such foresight.
>marines are the ones who kill others before they kill us.
Only if they have to, as a former Marine I am familiar with this on
a personnal level.
>Leaving 'why' to the next decade was dangerous in the 1980s as we
>can see with the luxury of hindsight; I don't see that it is any
>less dangerous today.
Indeed. It will require great skill to be pre-emptive rather than
reactionary in world affairs, but the rewards for all humanity are
great.
Brian
Member:
Extropy Institute, www.extropy.org
National Rifle Association, www.nra.org, 1.800.672.3888
SBC/Ameritech Data Center Chicago, IL, Local 134 I.B.E.W
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