From: Dan Clemmensen (dgc@cox.rr.com)
Date: Sun Sep 16 2001 - 15:07:06 MDT
Adrian Tymes wrote:
>
> "Hello, Russia? You're still on good terms with your Turkmen state,
> right? Well, we were wondering if we could use your already-
> established bases on its southern border as our supply depot. Oh, and
> all those troops you have just sitting around, waiting for something to
> do to prove Russian military might? Well, we were wondering if they'd
> mind being our main infantry. We'll bring the air force, and armor to
> suppliment what you have. We'll also ask Iran if they want in, but
> you're closer to Afghanistan's capital and a *lot* more reliable than
> Pakistan - though we will offer Pakistan help sealing their borders,
> since they do seem to want out of this fight as much as possible. Or
> maybe we'll ask India to help there: they could use an excuse to
> improve diplomatic relations with Pakistan, and working shoulder-to-
> shoulder to keep war from spilling over would certainly help.
>
The single most effective way to unite the Afghan people behind the
Taliban would be to support or invite a Russian invasion. The
next-best way would be to support or invite an Iranian invasion.
An action originating in Pakistan against bin Laden and the Taliban
would probably be in Pakistan's interest and is likely to be supported
by the Afghan people.
Also, the last thing the Russians need internally is a fight with
another bunch of Muslims. They are already in a mess in Chechnia.
I really, really hope our objective is to crush the pan-islamic
terrorist movement and its supporters. That's bin Laden, al-queda,
and a whole bunch of folks in a whole bunch of countries that have
supported them. The Taliban is one bunch of such people. The Afghan
people as a whole apparently are not. I'd guess that our best move
is to work through Pakistan, and Pakistan appears to be about to help.
I strongly suspect that Pakistan is willing to help because Pakistan's
prior help for bin Laden and the Taliban will otherwise blow up in
their face. As I understand it, al-Queda's single largest current
activity is supporting the islamic kashmiris against India on the
disputed border between India and Pakistan. Pakistan has really good
reasons to help us in Afghanistan in order to keep us from noticing
Kashmir.
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