From: J. R. Molloy (jr@shasta.com)
Date: Thu Aug 30 2001 - 11:55:18 MDT
From: "Anders Sandberg" <asa@nada.kth.se>
> Of course, economics in the middle to late century will also be
> affected by other factors such as whether AI enables largescale
> automation
Large scale automation in the private sector has resulted in government bloat,
as displaced workers help to ratchet up bureaucratic fiefdoms. If government
is _not_ automated to the degree private industry has been, accelerating AI
becomes more susceptible to assimilation by military forces, because unlike
government, the armed forces energetically pursue the replacement of personnel
with machines. The military has a particularly effective anti-ageing treatment
that it refers to as "termination with extreme prejudice."
> Notice that nobody has said that maybe the retirement age ought to
> move up. So beside anti-aging treatments we might need anti-pension
> treatments :-)
Been there, done that. It's called inflation without cost of living
adjustments -- also an effective anti-ageing treatment, as it replaces older
workers with younger ones (the older workers disappear, nobody knows where
they go).
> The old have much money invested in long-term investments
> such as pension funds, which might mean a tendency for capital to be
> more risk-aversive.
beside anti-aging treatments we might need anti-pension
> If the first world enters ageing recessions, it is very likely that
> at least parts of the third world can capitalize greatly on the
> relative youth of their populations. And it is if course a great
> argument for opening up borders and allowing immigration - it is
> very likely the US is going to remain the economic powerhouse of the
> economy if the predictions this article makes come true, simply
> thanks to the relatively high immigration.
Just the opposite will happen when young biotech scientists in the US emigrate
to countries which do not limit stem cell research, and these emigrants are
replaced by immigrant farm laborers, unskilled workers, and fugitives from
across the border. Socio-economic upheaval predicted by savvy futurists (which
outdistance the predictions this article makes) argues for rational
consideration of the decline of nations and the continued rise of
technologically protected corporate entities. This is more extropic than the
alternative, viz., runaway escalation of industrial-military AI to protect the
assets of aging wealthy families, pensioned politicians, and the faith-based
establishment.
Stay hungry,
--J. R.
Useless hypotheses, etc.:
consciousness, phlogiston, philosophy, vitalism, mind, free will, qualia,
analog computing, cultural relativism, GAC, Cyc, Eliza, cryonics, individual
uniqueness, ego
Everything that can happen has already happened, not just once,
but an infinite number of times, and will continue to do so forever.
(Everything that can happen = more than anyone can imagine.)
We won't move into a better future until we debunk religiosity, the most
regressive force now operating in society.
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