From: mez (mez@mezziah.org)
Date: Sat Jan 20 2001 - 22:06:26 MST
From: E. Shaun Russell [mailto:e_shaun@extropy.org]
> Mez wrote:
>
> >2) Rate of computational power growth. In _Age of Spiritual
> Machines_
> >(my copy is also on loan so I will again go out on a limb) Kurzweil
> >projects computational power growing by a factor of 10^3
> every decade.
>
> Wrong again. From page 105: "...the capacity of computing
> will double ten
> times every decade, which is a factor of one thousand (2^10)
> every ten years."
This is not consistent. 10 doublings in a decade is a factor of 1024,
or approximately 10^3.
And of course, the rule of thumb in the industry is a doubling every
18 months, or 6.67 doublings per decade, or a factor of approximately
100 per decade.
I do regret misrepresenting Kurzweil earlier, but I don't think I'm
doing so this time.
cheers,
mez
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