From: Ziana Astralos (ziana@extrotech.net)
Date: Sat Dec 30 2000 - 12:40:48 MST
http://www.freep.com/news/mich/future30_20001230.htm
By examining what's happening now, futurist paints a
vivid picture of the world to come
December 30, 2000
BY AMY KLEIN
FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER
Ed Klobucher doesn't use a crystal ball. There are no
tarot cards spread on his coffee table, no Ouija board
stashed in his Hazel Park hall closet.
Still, Klobucher can say with confidence that in 2001,
more Arab Americans will be elected to local
government; in 15 years, Michigan will have a mass
transit system, and 20 years down the road, human body
parts will be cloned to save lives.
But he cannot pick the next winning lotto numbers or
say whether your boyfriend will pop the question.
Klobucher, 37, predicts the future. But rather than
rely on tea leaves and palm lines, he and 30,000 other
members of the World Future Society identify trends,
create possible scenarios and consult experts in
various fields to predict what will happen in 2001, as
well as 100 years down the road.
"There are two purposes for futuristic studies: making
forecasts for what might happen and identifying a
preferred future," Klobucher said.
For instance, by tracking urban sprawl and the growing
road congestion in northern Oakland County, Klobucher
predicted a mass transit system will be built. With an
eye on scientific progress, Klobucher says that far in
the future there will be a way to halt human aging.
And, without Y2K hype and the looming fear that the
world may end, Klobucher predicts that New Year's Eve
partyers will have more fun Sunday night.
In southeast Michigan, the World Future Society is
gaining ground. The society, founded in 1966, is a
nonprofit, nonpartisan clearinghouse for predictions in
Bethesda, Md. Last year, Klobucher opened the state's
first chapter, and it has attracted 15 people who meet
about three times a year to ruminate on the what-ifs.
Even far-out ones.
For instance, what if India and Pakistan launch a
nuclear war? Or if nanotechnology becomes so advanced
that scientists can rearrange the molecules of charcoal
dust into diamonds?
"Even though a prediction isn't accurate it doesn't
mean that it doesn't have any value," Klobucher said.
"Sometimes a prediction itself can change the outcome."
And sometimes, just the act of learning to predict is
useful. Klobucher uses his forecasting skills to
pinpoint trends in Hazel Park, where he is assistant
city manager. He also teaches Introduction to Future
Studies, a political science and sociology class at
Madonna University in Livonia.
Futurists hail from all fields and approach predictions
with a range of biases -- they can be optimists or
pessimists, Republicans or Democrats.
"If you ask two different futurists you'll get two
different answers," Klobucher said. For the record,
Klobucher labels himself a Republican optimist.
Ray Kurzweil is one of today's more prominent futurists
and has earned a reputation for on-the-mark
predictions, Klobucher said. In Kurzweil's 1999 book,
"The Age of Spiritual Machines," he predicts that 20
years from now, $1,000 computers will match the
brainpower of humans.
And, just as there are accurate futurists, others get
it wrong.
Take Alex Lewyt, president of Lewyt Vacuum Cleaner Co.,
who predicted nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners would be
a reality in the next 10 years. That was in 1955.
Similarly, more pressing predictions may remain out of
reach. Is the country's slowing economy headed for a
full-blown recession?
"If I could tell that, I probably would be working
someplace else right now," Klobucher said, laughing.
For more information on the Michigan chapter of the
World Future Society, contact Klobucher at 248-315-1272
or e-mail him at eklobucher@aol.com.
Contact AMY KLEIN at 248-591-5629 or
klein@freepress.com.
( note: the World Future Society's website is at
http://www.wfs.org/ )
Aumentar!
Onward,
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