From: Ross A. Finlayson (raf@tiki-lounge.com)
Date: Sat Dec 23 2000 - 08:03:50 MST
Hello,
There are many rapid advancements across broad fronts of scientific and
technological research. As well, the fundamental mathematical sciences
advance.
At the same time, people's lives are not so different from hundreds of
years ago, except many more people have automobiles, high technology
appliances and devices, and medicine, as well as entertainment.
A cloning instance no longer makes the regular news. Public health is
generally at a very good level, except for high levels of HIV infection
in some areas, for which large public monies research cures. Modern
surgical medicine is able to perform regular operations that perform
lifesaving actions that ten or twenty years ago would not have been
possible. There are cars that drive themselves.
So in ten years, there will have been many more sweeping technological
advancements. Much of it will be space- or time- saving, or otherwise
convenient. Some earlier cultures of man lived the hunter-gather life
with four hours of a day towards subsistence activities to acquire the
economic means of lifestyle and quality of life, and the rest spent in
leisure activities. Today, many work more hours per day and find
satisfaction from their work, some are overworked for economic
requirements.
Some activities can not be compressed or delegated. For example, using
an adding machine or spreadsheet software, it is possible to perform
many calculations rapidly. The time to perform that activity is
compressed. The delegation is like the dishwasher, fill it with dishes
and it will wash the dishes. Generally, local human interaction is
un-compressible, yet the context might be familiar. Advanced
technological methods of communication like a distributed newsletter
allow many to receive a communication at one time, or e-mail software
might have ways to address to many people simultaneously. Thus, people
will have more time and incentive to spend in the activities that
technology itself does not directly address.
On the other hand, there are technological paradigm shifts. Those
affect the context for people in general, or specifically in significant
ways. There is rapid advancement on the genomic front. If you think
about it, a gene might have many thousands of pairs on it. So, for
example, there might be N! combinations of that. It is not infeasible
to think that in the future that genomic changes be possibly made ready
and simple. It is a dangerous field morally because it is in the
context of human's deeply ingrained sense of self-preservation. So,
ethically we can examine it generally. In the future in public health
classes at school, they can talk about the genome during genome
education.
The artificial intelligence methods that exist are truly wonderful in
their nature. There will be more expert systems, and ways to interact
with your own personal computer.
In terms of physics and the eternal quest for the fundamental nature of
reality, what is taught today was new ten years ago.
Nanotechnology can make a lot of positive beneifts to society. Consider
the computer processor of today, perhaps it is microtechnology.
Nanotechnology, working a little closer to the bounds of physical
precision possible, will make the production of high quantities of
structural components, as well, it will be able to enable high-tolerance
microtechnology. Nanotechnology is also dangerous, but so is the
knowledge of nuclear reactions and and the fact that many hydrocarbons
are spilled into the atmosphere.
Ross
-- Ross Andrew Finlayson Finlayson Consulting Ross at Tiki-Lounge: http://www.tiki-lounge.com/~raf/
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