From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu Dec 14 2000 - 13:19:39 MST
J. R. Molloy wrote,
>Anders Sandberg
>
>> Another tidbit I noted: the number of basepairs that can be sequenced
>> or synthetized together into strands per day and person appears to
>> increase superexponentially right now. I saw some plots comparing it
>> to Moore's law, and it was much more dramatic. After listening to
>> Craig Venter, I have the feeling that we should look for a biotech
>> singularity rather than a nanotech one :-)
>
>Excellent observation, Anders. I've felt that we should expect a biotech
>singularity as well as a nanotech one for years. Of course some futurists
>still imagine a world in which we've abandoned biology in favor of synthetic
>materials, but if it's alive, it's still biology.
I have read about the concept of "doubling time" for knowledge. It
is the time it takes us to double our amount of knowledge in a
specific field. It is different for different fields. Biology was
one of the smallest doubling times, down to 18 months a few years
ago. This doubling time does not remain constant, but keeps
shrinking. This does imply singularity in different fields at
different times.
-- Harvey Newstrom <HarveyNewstrom.com>
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