From: Michael S. Lorrey (mlorrey@datamann.com)
Date: Thu Dec 07 2000 - 10:41:18 MST
Having seen the evident bias in many of the forecasts in the Foresight
Exchange, I'm beginning to conceive the idea that better methods of
forecasting can be derived by researching and catalogueing prevalent
memes influencing markets in the past. Creating a genealogy of the
birth, parentage, lives, and deaths of various memes, as well as ratings
of their influence on the economy, as well as current watchfulness for
new memes bearing on the market should allow one to make better
predictions about market trends as well as predict dramatic shifts. I'm
expecting that a large amount of survey data histories would play
significantly in these predictions. This could conceivably be used as a
precursor to some sort of true psychohistorical science. Discuss...
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