From: Emlyn O'Regan (emlyn@one.net.au)
Date: Thu Sep 14 2000 - 08:11:09 MDT
Jodie, my darling wife and partner in crime (err, a respectable business
venture, in any case), has been putting some legwork into looking at social
trends in the near future. It's interesting stuff, and pertains to what's
been discussed regarding people's values with respect to technology & the
future. The stuff I've posted here is from an Australian perspective, but is
likely to be relatively close to what's going on in the rest of the first
world.
She made some notes a while back, which are very much in a draft, internal
use only kind of form. However, being a lazy boy, I've just stuck them in as
is. They're a good read anyway.
Emlyn
**************
>From the book
Turning Point
by Hugh Mackay
on how people perceive the changes to technology .
p. 237 - p. 250
Australians are big into techno gadgets, eg internet (18% of households now
connected)
but
many are unsure about the long term benefits to themselves, their family,
and society. Technology stimulates fear, mistrust and anxiety.
>From Computers, technology and the future
A recurring theme.is that society will become depersonalized, that people
and groups will be alienated from each other, and that life will become
emotionally colder. These fears depend upon the idea of machines coming to
dominate people in a way not thought to have occurred previously.People feel
that the future holds technological innovations which are in some way more
complex and more persuasive than we have previously seen. It is this
prospect which is frightening and which leads to the idea of a diminution of
the significance of human beings themselves.
Technology depersonalising society
Communication implications
people being replaced by machines in the workplace, eg ATMs. Uproar about
train conductors being replaced, in Melbourne.
impact on quality of family time -children becoming more isolated from their
parents. Parents worry about other implications for their children such as
suffering social skills, health impacts and personality changes, ie
expecting instant gratification and loss of ability to amuse themselves.
loss of face to face communication through overuse of email and mobile
phones.
Fear of an attitude of 'technological determinism' which removes
consideration of human values from the process of technological development.
Also many Australians love technology but are also aware of negative
implications for personal relationships.
Technology and Unemployment
Most Australians see positive, causal relationship.
Mr Mackay proposes that this points at a deeper fear people have of
unknowable change. "When people complain that new technology costs jobs,
they may be airing a deeper fear, the fear that new technology changes our
lives in all kinds of ways that we can't always anticipate - some good, some
bad: look at the motor car." p 243
Technology and Privacy
"particularly in the banking market, and in areas where government
departments store information about us, people are becoming increasingly
aware of the possibility of all kinds of sharing and transferring of this
data. Sometimes their fears are based on deliberate decisions to spread date
around: sometimes they fear less legal access to private and sensitive
information."
Loss of anonymity through the internet. People have a vague sense of anxiety
that 'nothing is really secure" once information is put into a vast
electronic network.
On the other hand, there are concerns about lack of source credibility and
reliability. Is the person you are emailing who they say they are?
Fears of exposure to the "dark side of humanity" through the internet.
People are concerned about how technology is furthering their dependence on
credit.
Is technology just promoted consumerism pushed down people's throats? Will
there be a gap between the info rich and the info poor?
Currently only dim awareness of the future importance of non computing
technologies (he was referring to genetic engineering) and related level of
fear at present.
"We know there is an ethical minefield out there, waiting for our
understanding to catch up with the experimental work being done."
John Gray, London school of economics
" The dream that technology serves is a dream of complete control. It's a
dream with ancient sources in Western traditions. It's the dream that we can
cease to be mortal, earth-bound creatures subject to fate and chance. It's a
product not so much of science as of magic. The project of using technology
to remake the world according to our will captures the fantasy by which we
have been ruled during much of the 20th century. It is a fantasy of progress
without instability."
**************
Summarising the Millenium Edge by the lovely Noel Turnbull
p. 15 generation MM : "having values, being a committed and responsible
member of the community; communicating through dialogue rather than
didactically; and learning that in the millennium perceptions count as much
as performance."
16 Significant sections of the world's population think that the world will
end or be totally transformed at any moment. Diverse groups with very
different agenda for eg. religious fundamentalists and extreme radical
environmentalists.
18 in modern society "myth, fiction, images and reality all get confused to
the extent that it is very often difficult to tell which is which."
19 growing tension between globalism and localism. 20 "the more global the
world becomes the more possible it is for smaller communities to be both
politcally and geographically separate while still being part of the wider
world."
20" ...the human response to change. Change and uncertainty unsettle the
vast majority of people. They become frightened and apprehensive. The more
change the more fear, and the more fear the more people become alienated and
despairing. The greater the despair and the alienation the greater the
desire to develop a sense of belonging and security. Thus, as the world
becomes more global, the more important it becomes for individuals to define
themselves in terms of place, family and community."
22. Gen MM will not be scared of technology, it will be a standard part of
their lives, but they will yearn for wilderness and simplicity. 23 Little
interest in history, high level of environmental awareness, but not be
enviro-fundys, used to economic insecurity and change, principally oriented,
balance and value will be important to them, respect minorities and gender
equality, moderate in much that they do, will look for quality, absorbed a
spiritual element.
25. "the world will seem threatening and irrational."
30 "Religious fundamentalism is here." 31 U.S. 70% people believe in the
devil. 40% people believe a nuclear fire will bring Armageddon. Rise of New
Age stuff also.
39. "Myth will merge into reality. if we fail to recognise that - and assume
that everyone is rational, or able to distinguish between myth and reality -
we will fail to understand what is really happening"
42 Communication skills will change
46. more people will own dogs.
47 Science is again battling superstition. Anti technology feelings, in
large minority of population. ( eg 40% of US want to put limits on techno
development.)
51. Environmentalism will continue to be important.
63. The need for interpersonal communication will not go away.
Politics
65. Gen mm to be more involved in local politics, understand that national
governments have less and less real power, and lobby for devolution.
76. Feelings of nationalism will continue to be important, but the
boundaries of "nation" will get smaller and smaller. Economic independence
is a thing of the past, cultural nationalism is the thing of the future.
77. rejection of materialism, development of community awareness, and more
towards democratic socialism in terms of public services, welfare etc.
91 Gen MM values - trust cohesion stakeholding
83 a coming Asian century
87. Knowledge will be the most valuable commodity in the world. Gen mm will
spend time in life long learning.
94. US people rate the microwave as the most important technological change
in the last 25 years. Time represents freedom - technology that saves time
in their daily lives impresses people. People are generally not impressed by
technology unless it improves their daily lives. Future technology is
extremely uncertain.
104 "a gigantic explosion in demand for the products and services from the
cultural industries."
106 symmetrical two way communication will become paramount - people will
crave to be listened to.
108 trust of message source will become even more important - word of mouth
especially.
116 Dads - middle aged middle class men in suits are bumbling buffoons.
"Fathers don't know the answers to homework questions. Fathers can't fix the
washing machine. Fathers get lost on outings in the car and are too stubborn
to ask for directions. Fathers can't cook a meal without wrecking the
kitchen. Yet here - on television screens around the world - were a flock of
fathers saying the planet was safe, there was no environmental risk, and we
really just had to have some faith. They were saying "We don't need to stop
and ask for directions, because I'm sure if we just go down here we'll get
back on the right road soon." Work dress codes will become more casual.
121 21stc - "millions and millions more people with more disposable income
than ever before."
128 Database records of customers for good interactive communication,
tempered with increased demands for privacy
135 Brands will continue to be important, become more important, but
customers will be looking for values as well as value. Brand will need to
personify philanthropy, environmental awareness, and community awareness,
demonstrating that they are doing good in the community.
140 Value is more important than price.
142 regulation means the government is doing your issues management for
you.''
143 value, trust, trustworthiness, co-operation and dialogue
156 the days of the victory metaphor are over. Just concentrate on your
customers, be most excellent and get away from competition mindset.
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