From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Fri Aug 25 2000 - 13:31:25 MDT
Corwyn J. Alambar wrote:
>Space exploration and colonization. ... require us to rethink some of our
>most
>basic assumptions about how we measure value and economy, and how we deal
>with
>so-called common goods, and "unaccounted costs" of business and living.
>... (breathable air, clean water, protection from radiation) are all
>commodities
>of a remarkable scarcity on another world. ... same goes for water, ...
>... (i.e. widespread photovoltaic electricity production,
>micro-scale chemical manufacturing, commercial hydroponics) suddenly become
>more valuable given the constraints of limited "traditional" resources (no
>petrochemicals to start with) and limitations of other "non-traditional"
>resources (pure water, volume for production, constant air pressure, human
>resources). Economies of scale are less useful with a limited market ...
>"Unaccounted costs" will be the area where business practices and economic
>estimates will have to chang the most, however. Such "unaccounted" costs of,
>say, an automobile-based transportation system include air pollution, water
>pollution, noise pollution, increased road maintenance, and the possibility of
>increased cancer rates, plus the extra space required to store and maintain a
>vehicle. ... in a domed setting ... the enclosed structure ...
>is a major common good that needs to be maintained. This requires the
>vigilance and maintenance by some sort of organization - a government,
>perhaps,
>or a "non-aligned" (non-profit?) corporation that maintains, repairs, and
>upgrades these facilities. The economy must be capable of tuning itself and
>running sustained from the beginning, lest it crash ...
>In the end, the old economc models will be inadequate for dealing with the
>critical first year or two of an established extraterrestrial colony's
>existence. ...
These seem like large technical challenges, but relatively minor changes in
our economic models and assumptions. Externalities and public goods are
familiar issues, though the details may change.
I worked on systems which allow barter among scientific experiments on
spacecraft, and so I know that there do tend to be more externalities among
nearby systems, at least on the small scale. These include vibration,
pressure failures, and radiation shielding. But the costs of monitoring
such externalities should be very low, and we are already used to having
lots of substantial externalities among humans on small space scales.
Having a viable space colony economy is very challenging, mainly because
that economy has to be very self-sufficient in all physical goods. I think
this is why we won't see such colonies for a long time to come. (I say a
bit more on this at http://hanson.gmu.edu/dreamautarky.html )
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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