From: Charlie Stross (charlie@antipope.org)
Date: Thu Aug 17 2000 - 11:44:46 MDT
On Wed, Aug 16, 2000 at 09:53:27PM -0700, Terry W. Colvin wrote:
> Provided we have enough brain-power and sufficient resources we can accomplish
> almost anything we set our minds to. If we wanted to we could develop a quiet
> and economical SST to replace the Concorde and possibly many subsonic
> transports. However, it is not in the industry's interest to do so, especially
> given the huge investment they would have to make which would be considered very
> risky and thus unprofitable. This aversion to risk has already been devastating
> in some respects. Our inability or unwilingness to innovate will come back to
> haunt us some day.
Root for the Airbus 3XX, then.
Boeing hasn't bothered pushing at the large end of the subsonic spectrum
since the 747-400 -- they keep dreaming up ideas about stretched deck
747s then dropping them and working on things like the 777 instead. The
777 makes a lot of sense as an incremental project -- low risk, high
reward -- but little in the way of limit-shattering excitement.
If the A3XX is successful, Boeing are going to feel very pinched around
2008; the ageing 747 is already being nibbled away at the low end by
the 777 and A340, and by 2006 the process will start at the high end when
the 3XX is on sale.
Boeing will then have a choice: try and build a 3XX-beater -- a
super-Jumbo -- or do something completely new. The super-Jumbo won't be
easy; by that point the 747 family will be over forty years old, so my
guess is a new airframe will be in order. However, if the Asian economies
have stabilised, a 350 seater SST would give them a very interesting
market proposition.
(Or it could be the Tupolev 244 team in combination with Airbus and some
indigenous Japanese consortium. But -- as a non aerospace insider --
my money's on Boeing building the next SST ...)
-- Charlie
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