From: hal@finney.org
Date: Sun Jul 23 2000 - 20:53:20 MDT
Chris Hibbert writes:
> The date of the Feynman Grand Prize was the subject of some of the most active
> claims on the exchange at the gathering in May. There are three claims saying
> that the prize will be won by 2010, by 2015, and by 2020. Before the gathering
> the market put the odds at 60-65% of an award by 2020, 30-40% by 2015, and
> 15-18% by 2010. At this year's meeting someone believed that the prizes are
> pretty likely to be awarded by 2010, and a near certainty by 2015, and so they
> bought up all the offered coupons available for less than 90. Others saw this
> activity, and quickly bid the prices back down. At the moment, the odds are
> listed as follows: for 2010 25-30; for 2015 40-50; and for 2020 65-75.
The (similarly named, but unrelated) Foresight Exchange on-line game also
has a claim regarding the Feynman Grand Prize, which I created four years
ago. It is a "scaled" claim, meaning that the players are essentially
betting on what year they think the claim will happen. Through most
of 1997 and 1998 the claim hovered around a value corresponding to
the mid 2020's. Since then the claim has fallen and now corresponds
to about 2018, perhaps a little more pessimistic than the Foresight
real-money version.
Hal
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