From: hal@finney.org
Date: Fri Jul 14 2000 - 19:38:59 MDT
Robin writes:
> Of course at this stage in our ignorance a great many scenarios are plausible.
> One key question is how diversified individual portfolios are - if well
> diversified, especially out of their personal wage, then most people benefit.
Can we get a sense today of how much diversification is necessary in order
to benefit from such a change? I found a statistic:
Today, 76 million Americans, members of 43 percent of U.S.
households, own stocks or stock mutual funds. This represents a
126 percent increase in shareholding over 15 years.
Of course this doesn't say how much of their assets are involved in
stock ownership; probably a relatively small amount for most people.
But if these growth rates continue then there could be a large number
of people who have substantial assets invested in the market by the
time uploads were a factor.
Is this enough? Will all companies benefit, or will only the few
companies which actually develop the technology manage to retain the
lion's share of the profits?
> Another key question is how much international politics tolerates losers.
> If one nation can allow uploads and make most of their citizens rich,
> how hard will other nations try to prevent them from doing this?
By this you mean, a nation whose citizens had widely diversified
investments, so that most people would benefit financially from the
introduction of uploads to take over most forms of labor? (Rather,
most people except the uploads, I guess...)
Hal
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