From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 - 08:02:31 MDT
Robert J. Bradbury wrote:
> > > I disagree that you need advanced nanotech to upload. ... it
> > > could well be worth spending billions of dollars to scan just one brain,
> > Er, wait a minute! ....
>
> You can imagine a destructive readout approach with nothing more than extremely
> very fine tissue slicers combined with near field microscopy ... In my mind this
> isn't an "upload" but a "copyload". ... a lot of antibodies or other
> neurotransmitter identifiction ... probably beyond current technology ... It might
> be feasible in ten or so years ... My guess though is that that type of readout
> would be quite slow and very expensive. ... 5 Terabytes of information just to
> store the brain map ... Getting it into main memory ... circa 2010-2015. Even then
> it is going to be a pretty sizable computer.
Yes, that is what I had in mind, though I think "upload" is a reasonable term for it.
> I think Robin is a fan of "copyload" even if destructive readout is required ...
> (You have to remember, he's the author of the theory that the person who gets to
> the playhouse first gets to monopolize all the toys... :-)).
>
> I probably prefer more of a gradual evolutionary "upload" process over many
> years. I'd bet David prefers this as well. The "copyload" process can probably
> be done without "real" nanotech. The "evoload" process probably requires
> long term, real time monitoring and that would require either *very*
> advanced biotech or real med-nano-tech.
I think the first priority is to analyze what is likely to happen with us pushing for
any particular thing, and then we can decide what we want to push for. I think it
likely that we will have the ability to create a single expensive "upload" (for less
than $1B) well before advanced nanotech, and given the vast amounts of money to be
made from one this is what will happen. Then its a matter of filling market niches
and business competition that I think leads to domination of the upload economy by
the first few thousand, and perhaps the first few ten, uploads. By the time your
"evoloads" show up, the game is basically over.
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:29:54 MST