From: Brent Allsop (allsop@fc.hp.com)
Date: Wed Feb 16 2000 - 10:18:02 MST
Todd Huffman <alvinjsminavich@hotmail.com> pointed us to the ZDNet
article/interview on Ray Kurzweil.
I think Ray's predictions are great but I predict he is
missing the most important of all things. I like the way Ray refers
to them as "spiritual machines" but after reading his book I think he
is missing the most important point. In his book (and in this
article) all he says is that we will know they are "spiritual" with:
"They will claim to be people, and to have the full range of emotional
and spiritual experiences that people claim to have," he says. "These
will not be idle claims. They will evidence the sort of rich, complex,
and subtle behavior one associates with these feelings."
My prediction is that within the next 20 years we will finally
discover what "spiritual" stuff or "qualia" (i.e. a red or
salty... sensation) are. This will be the most important scientific
discovery of all time and it will finally tell us what we, as
"spiritual machines", are. Once we do this people will finally
realize that trying to know if a machine really "feels" such
"spiritual" things simply by observing external behavior as he
describes can result in at best an "idle claim". When a machine
finally says: "Oh *THATS* what salt tastes like" and we objectively
know it isn't lying (i.e. just regurgitate this response from some
"rich, complex, and subtle" abstract lookup table is a lie since it is
not really feeling or knowing what a salty sensation is like.)
Our ability to do true "effing" will then follow. Only when
we do this can we finally know just how conscious others are and how
much like our consciousness their consciousness is. ("Oh that's what
salt tastes like for you, it's different for me...")
Until we do this any claim that a machine is "spiritual" is
just an "idle claim". I know some of you side with Ray and would
disagree with this point of view but thank goodness we agree that,
some day soon, we will know for sure who is right and who is really
just making "idle claims". Only when we can do this will we know for
sure when there is "no longer any distinction between humans and
computers".
What will be the greatist scientific discovery of all time and
when will it be made? I'm predicting we are about to find out and
that the many people like Ray will be kicking themselves for a long
time for coming so close yet completely missing it. Please mark my
words.
Brent Allsop
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