From rusty at rustcorp.com.au  Tue Oct 27 19:33:25 2015
From: rusty at rustcorp.com.au (Rusty Russell)
Date: Wed, 28 Oct 2015 06:03:25 +1030
Subject: [Lightning-dev] Lightning fees vs miner fees
In-Reply-To: <20151027054029.GA6185@navy>
References: <20151027054029.GA6185@navy>
Message-ID: <87mvv4w1h6.fsf@rustcorp.com.au>

Anthony Towns <aj at erisian.com.au> writes:
>  C. Without lightning, as bitcoin adoption increases, either fees rise,
>     or number of transactions per block increases proportionally. If
>     1% of people know about bitcoin, and use it whenever it's cheap;
>     then 2% of people knowing about bitcoin gives twice as many
>     transactions at any given price level.

Metcalf's law?  Both sides need to "know about bitcoin".

Say: 1 billion people, each initiating 100 txs per year.  But only 1%
know about bitcoin, so those 10M can only use it for 1 of their annual
transactions.  At 2%, 20M can use it for 2 of their annual transactions...

Not sure how this alters the rest of your calculations.

Cheers,
Rusty.