[p2p-research] Fwd: a complement to the debate with brian davey

[Michel Bauwens]

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Brian Davey <briadavey at googlemail.com>
Date: Sun, Jan 2, 2011 at 7:11 PM
Subject: Re: a complement to the debate with brian davey
To: Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>


I'm more of a fan of Tainter than Diamond - Diamond's book is fascinating
but I wasn't left afterwards with a clear message - whereas with Tainter I
was.

If I may recommend it again, the hour or so interview with Tainter by
Puplaver on the internet is well worth listening to - Tainter mentions and
describes many collapses, goes over the Roman decline and collapse in some
detail and relates his ideas to the problems of the current day.


http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/in-depth/joseph-tainter-phd/the-collapse-of-complex-societies

I think the Panarchy method of seeing things is compatible with a Tainter
view. There is a shorter book which is also useful a propos Panarchy called
"Resilience Thinking. Sustaining Ecosystems and People in a Changing World"
by Brian Walker and David Salt - also by Island Press, published 2006 -
Chapter 4 is a good short intro to the Panarchical approach.

Brian



On Sun, Jan 2, 2011 at 1:11 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:

> thanks Brian, panarchy is on my reading list, and in our community, we have
> Paul Hartzog who is a great fan of that book
>
> I'm reading jared diamond now, tainter is on my list for later,
>
> but as far as I know, the roman affair was a very long one, more like the
> long descent that greer talks about, than a sudden collapse
>
> mexico seems a real tragedy, but in latin america, there is a real revival
> going on for the moment; dramatic decreases in poverty and illiteracy across
> the board, renewal and strengthening of public services; evo morales'
> troubles with ending fuel subsidies shows the difficulties in making all
> this sustainable ..
>
> I will ask Trent about the examples!
>
>
> On Sun, Jan 2, 2011 at 3:29 AM, Brian Davey <briadavey at googlemail.com>wrote:
>
>> fine, go ahead. I've just been reading an article about drugs wars and the
>> terrifying break down of Mexican society... where the conditions for a new
>> beginning do not appear favourable. I think its fair to describe the fate of
>> the Roman Empire as a collapse and that led to several centuries called the
>> "Dark Ages".  In other places there's much more of a chance and the
>> conditions are appear much more favourable.
>>
>> In the collection of essays in the Panarchy book there is an essay by
>> Holling, Gunderson and Peterson which suggests a number of circumstance
>> where the "release" phase does not lead to resources being channeled towards
>> pioneers of new beginnings but into a "poverty trap".
>>
>> "If an adaptive cycle collapses because the potential and diversity have
>> been eradicated by misuse or an external force, an impoverished state can
>> result with low connectedness, low potential and low resilience, creating a
>> poverty trap. That condition can propogate downward through levels of the
>> panarchy, collapsing levels as it goes....An example of such collapse occurs
>> when a society is traumatised by social upheaval or conflict, where cultural
>> cohesion and adaptive abilities have been lost. Individuals depend only on
>> themselves and perhaps family members
>>
>>
>>
>> In Berlin I met Trent Schroyer and have been reading his book "Beyond
>> Western Economics". There's some really good examples there of societies
>> that have picked themselves up - despite the awful conditions in southern
>> Italy, there are places in northern Italy that look much more healthy. For
>> example this description of the area around Bologna.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Sat, Jan 1, 2011 at 1:44 PM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> Hi Brian,
>>>
>>> a very interesting reply, could I republish this in the p2p blog, as
>>> 'next in series' to the argument made by Eric,
>>>
>>> my own take is that open money builders are part of the general tendency
>>> to replace what is collapsing with more robust and localized resilient
>>> alternatives,
>>>
>>> I think the difference between you and eric is like a mirror image of our
>>> earlier debate,
>>>
>>> you hear 'abundance' and you think, these guys are not realizing we are
>>> going to a scarcity situation,
>>>
>>> they hear colllapse and think, these guys don't realize what can be done
>>> about it ...
>>>
>>> Michel
>>>
>>>
>>> On Sat, Jan 1, 2011 at 8:26 PM, Brian Davey <briadavey at googlemail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> So, Eric Harris Braun doesn't like the word "collapse" because* "to
>>>> call what’s happening now a “collapse” I think keeps us from stepping into
>>>> the very “myriad opportunities it presents,” because it keeps us thinking in
>>>> the old way. If instead we conceive ourselves as part of a living system,
>>>> then how we conceive of what’s happening right now might be vastly
>>>> different.*"
>>>>
>>>> Well, frankly I think this is making an awful of fuss about one word. I
>>>> don't think using this word stops me thinking about opportunities and I've
>>>> never met anyone else whose thinking came grinding to a halt unable any
>>>> longer of seeing the point of working for a more positive future.
>>>>
>>>> Jared Diamond wrote a book called "Collapse" in order to help our
>>>> society avoid one. On the other hand Joseph Tainter wrote "The Collapse of
>>>> Complex Societies" and what he wrote makes plenty of sense to me. Sometimes
>>>> things are as bad as they seem - but somehow things continue afterwards -
>>>> some kind of life continues after collapses - or whatever word you want to
>>>> use.
>>>>
>>>> In the book "Panarchy. Understanding Transformations in Human and
>>>> Natural Systems" edited by Gunderson and Hollins, the word "release" is used
>>>> for a phase in what they call "adaptive cycles" - where release is the
>>>> release of resources from highly productive and interdependent systems that
>>>> have lost their resilience because of their hyper interdependency - so that
>>>> problems cascade through them and the system disintegrates. In this context
>>>> the word "release" is meant to convey the idea that, as the big systems
>>>> break down their resources are now available for new beginnings....
>>>>
>>>> It's great fun to make sweeping world historical generalisations but if
>>>> we're going to have a "Butterfly moment" as opposed to a "collapse moment"
>>>> then we need, to continue with Eric's metaphor about how caterpillars turn
>>>> into Butterflys, more people functioning as "stem cells" in the
>>>> social-economic and political "goo" after "peak everything".
>>>>
>>>> That means we need people who actually try to develop different forms of
>>>> productive organisation - like common pool resources, local exchange systems
>>>> and currencies, community farming etc - and develop them successfully as
>>>> responses to the growing chaos "as the mainstream turns into goo" (to use
>>>> Eric's metaphor again). So we need project developers more than essay
>>>> writers....
>>>>
>>>> It also depends who you are how you describe what is happening. I dare
>>>> say there are a few people in the USA, now living in cars and tents, who
>>>> would think that their lives have "collapsed". When US municipalities can no
>>>> longer pay pensions I dare say that a number of pensioners in the USA will
>>>> think that their world has collapsed too. I think it would actually help
>>>> these people psychologically if there was a widespread acknowledgment that
>>>> US society was breaking up, that they were involved in something bigger that
>>>> needed big responses  - and not deny it just because there is a facade of
>>>> normality in Washington and in Wall Street - among the too big to fail, too
>>>> big to tell the truth, too big to be accountable to the law institutions.
>>>>
>>>>   Above all I would like to insist that it is a time of great danger and
>>>> great danger can go either way - into transformative lifeboat projects that
>>>> become new starts for fulfilling lives and new opportunities....if and when
>>>> people organise tangible and really helpful mutual aid and skill sharing
>>>> that are really supportive - or it can lead to catastrophe...or indeed to
>>>> both, depending where and who you are, and/or what stage in the process you
>>>> are talking about....
>>>>
>>>> Eric writes inspirational  stuff about the accumulation of knowledge
>>>> alongside great ignorance and oppression. Quite - but we can't assume that
>>>> the accumulated knowledge of humanity so far will see us through against the
>>>> other side of what's happening. There's still huge danger and I dare say
>>>> there will be many casualties who will need support....
>>>>
>>>> Eric seems to be more on the optimistic side - partly because of the
>>>> accumulation of science, knowledge and understanding by humanity over its
>>>> history. For my part I think there's a very common oversimplification about
>>>> the way  that societies accumulate more and more knowledge and understanding
>>>> - what is less well appreciated is that, at the same time, societies and
>>>> individuals forget and lose knowledge - the skill of mending or re-
>>>> tayloring clothes, how to put a new sole or heel on shoes, the skill of
>>>> growing and cooking local food, how to look after animals. Over and against
>>>> this there is what sometimes feel to me to be a euphoric idea that society
>>>> is somehow growing in its knowledge because people are accumulating a lot of
>>>> skills to write inspirational tracts and are good at putting photos on
>>>> Facebook.
>>>>
>>>> As ecological economists Herman Daley and Joshua Farley point out:
>>>>
>>>> "new knowledge often renders old knowledge obsolete...and when knowledge
>>>> becomes obsolete the artifacts that embody that knowledge become obsolete as
>>>> well. ...As E J Mishan noted, technological knowledge often unrolls the
>>>> carpet of increased choice before us by the foot, while simultaneously
>>>> rolling it up behind us by the yard..... Furthermore new knowledge need not
>>>> always reveal new possibilities for growth, it can bring serious harm and
>>>> reveal new limitations. The new knowledge of the fire resisting properties
>>>> of asbestos increased its usefulness, subsequent knowledge of its
>>>> carcinogenic properties reduced its usefulness. New knowledge can cut both
>>>> ways. Finally, and most obviously, knowledge has to be actively learned and
>>>> taught every generation - it cannot be passively bequeathed like an
>>>> accumulating stock portfolio. When society invests little in the transfer of
>>>> knowledge to the next generation, some of it is lost, and its distribution
>>>> often becomes more concentrated, contributing to the growing inequality in
>>>> the distribution of income, as well as a general dumbing down in the future.
>>>>
>>>> "It is a gross prejudice to think that the future will always know more
>>>> than the past. Every generation is born totally ignorant, and just as we are
>>>> always one failed harvest away from starvation, we are also always one
>>>> failed generational transfer of knowledge away from darkest ignorance.
>>>> Although it is true that today many people know many things that no one knew
>>>> in the past, it is also true that large segments of the present generation
>>>> are more ignorant than large segments of past generations. The level of
>>>> policy in a democracy cannot rise above the average level of understanding
>>>> of the population. In a democracy, the distribution of knowledge is as
>>>> important as the distribution of wealth"
>>>>
>>>> Joshua Farley and Herman E Daly Ecological Economics pp40-41
>>>>
>>>> So, while it is true, that, at a great ecological cost that often goes
>>>> unrecognised, computers and the internet can and do provide a wonderful
>>>> means for the generational transfer of knowledge, I think that on balance we
>>>> are probably NOT on course to a Butterfly metamorphosis but, if anything
>>>> rather the reverse. The antibodies of the old order are currently doing a
>>>> lot of damage to the possibilities for renewal. For example, in the USA
>>>> what Daly and Farley term "the average level of understanding of the
>>>> population" is moving in the direction of creationism and pre-Darwinian
>>>> thought and the majority don't believe climate change is caused by fossil
>>>> fuels because of the PR work of the fossil fuel corporations added to
>>>> collective psychological denial. So science is in retreat in favour of
>>>> corporate lies. No wonder the powers that be are hysterical about
>>>> wikileaks.....
>>>>
>>>> So, in summary. (1) The use of the word 'collapse' is perfectly
>>>> compatible with working for, and believing in, the possibility that one
>>>> might make a difference for the better. ( I claim no more than that - let's
>>>> be less grandiose please!) (2) At the moment we are still in great danger
>>>> and the forces of ignorance seem to me, to be gaining ground if anything. I
>>>> say that not in order deliberately to cast gloom, but in order to stay
>>>> grounded in the reality. There are some positive developments but it's not
>>>> looking good. (3) Instead of writing tracts on world historical
>>>> generalisations can we try and stay on how we organise concrete and tangible
>>>> projects and carry them forward please.
>>>>
>>>> Happy New Year....
>>>>
>>>> Brian
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Sat, Jan 1, 2011 at 4:17 AM, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com
>>>> > wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> see http://eric.harris-braun.com/blog/2009/05/11/id-74
>>>>>
>>>>> *Eric Harris-Braun* wrote this<http://eric.harris-braun.com/blog/2009/05/11/id-74>in May 2009, but these are still very valid and stimulating observations:
>>>>>
>>>>> *“A friend of mine recently asked me to read Carolyn Baker’s article When
>>>>> facing reality is not ‘negative thinking<http://carolynbaker.net/site/content/view/1085/1/>.
>>>>> This article has finally helped me nail down some thought’s I’ve been having
>>>>> about the way I’ve been often asked to look at the “collapse” of
>>>>> civilization and the idea that we need to “face reality.”*
>>>>>
>>>>> *To begin with, I’d like to affirm my agreement with Dr. Baker and
>>>>> others that the ways our world is currently structured, from how we use
>>>>> people and energy, to how we feed our selves, to our political and financial
>>>>> forms, are completely unsustainable and are destined to be radically
>>>>> changed. That much is certain to me.*
>>>>>
>>>>> *But I’d like to suggest that the very act of framing of this process
>>>>> of change in terms of “collapse” and of “facing reality,” is in itself part
>>>>> of remaining within those same sets of unsustainable structures.*
>>>>>
>>>>> *Some people have described the current era as on par with what
>>>>> happens in a caterpillar before it turns into a butterfly. This process is
>>>>> not a simple transformation where the caterpillar body shrinks and then
>>>>> sprouts wings and legs. Instead the body of the caterpillar completely
>>>>> “collapses” into a a blob of ooze, and is then re-grows itself into it’s new
>>>>> form starting from what are called imaginal cells which are a kind of new
>>>>> butterfly stem cells that are even attacked by the body of the caterpillar
>>>>> before it has completely dissolved because they are at first not even
>>>>> recognized as “self”. This process has been written about elsewhere, so I
>>>>> won’t belabor it, but if you haven’t read about it before, it’s worth
>>>>> googling.*
>>>>>
>>>>> *However, I actually don’t think think this caterpillar-butterfly
>>>>> process really is on par with what’s happening now for one main reason: the
>>>>> outcome of the metamorphosis of the caterpillar is pretty darn certain, but
>>>>> the outcome of our future is not at all certain. But, this makes it more
>>>>> clear to me that to describe the change we are facing now as “collapse” is
>>>>> even more of a mistake than it was for me to use the word “collapse” in
>>>>> describing what happens to the body of the caterpillar.*
>>>>>
>>>>> *The word collapse comes from the roots “fall” and “together” and
>>>>> evokes the idea of the falling down of a building, and its breaking apart,
>>>>> shattering to pieces. The reason why that’s not an appropriate description
>>>>> in the case of the caterpillar, is that its body’s dissolution is part of an
>>>>> active living process that’s going somewhere, that though it is a
>>>>> destruction or death of sorts, is fully energized and there are nodes of
>>>>> self-organization that are part of the living process that will take it to
>>>>> the next step. Collapse is a word for the falling apart of a mechanical
>>>>> system, not for the transformation of a living one. And there’s the rub: at
>>>>> the heart of our world’s current structures (the very ones that led to our
>>>>> current forms of government, finance, politics, that are unsustainable), is
>>>>> the underlying assumption that the universe is a mechanical system that we
>>>>> are separate from rather than a living system of which ware intimately a
>>>>> part. So to call what’s happening now a “collapse” I think keeps us from
>>>>> stepping into the very “myriad opportunities it presents,” because it keeps
>>>>> us thinking in the old way. If instead we conceive ourselves as part of a
>>>>> living system, then how we conceive of what’s happening right now might be
>>>>> vastly different.*
>>>>>
>>>>> *Here is what I see: for the last 5000 years (since the advent of the
>>>>> three big inventions: agriculture, writing & money) we have been on a
>>>>> massive journey of increasing consciousness and liberating potential that
>>>>> those three inventions are the foundation of. I’m making no claim as to the
>>>>> universality, value, goodness or evil of this journey, I’m just know that it
>>>>> has happened. At the end of this 5000 year journey our consciousness of how
>>>>> the natural world (including ourselves) works, and the pure liberation of
>>>>> potential (both social, physical, and technological) is simply awesome. But
>>>>> we are at a nexus. On one hand there are millions if not billions of fully
>>>>> empowered humans on the planet; there is a vast quantity of energy that is
>>>>> available to be put to use; there is an even greater quantity of information
>>>>> and knowledge to organize that use; and there is an astounding set of
>>>>> information processing tools coordinate that use. On the other, there are
>>>>> millions, if not billions of disempowered and enslaved humans on the planet;
>>>>> there is vast energy need as well as waste; and there is great
>>>>> disinformation and lies spread and all kinds of machinations in place to
>>>>> prevent the free spread and coordination of information. I see these two
>>>>> “hands” as fully living and dynamic tensions in a vast living earth of which
>>>>> humanity, with it’s budding consciousness, is now a significant part.”
>>>>> *
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>>>
>>>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>>>
>>>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>>>
>>>>> Think tank:
>>>>> http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>>> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>>>
>>> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>>> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>>>
>>> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>>> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>>>
>>> Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>
>
> --
> P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>
> Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
> http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>
> Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>
> Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
>
>
>
>



-- 
P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net

Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org

Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens

Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://listcultures.org/pipermail/p2presearch_listcultures.org/attachments/20110102/dfe0acdf/attachment.html>